China Data Response Trade (Mar.) China’s trade data for March point to healthy growth in import volumes and add to growing evidence that the extreme gloom of a few weeks ago about the state of the domestic economy was misplaced. 13th April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Outlook for Australian services exports good, not great While exports of services will continue to grow rapidly over the next decade, they won’t boost GDP by anywhere near as much as resources exports have. For that to happen, countries such as China and... 13th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM oil producers unlikely to follow Angola to the IMF Angola last week became the first EM oil producer to turn to the IMF since oil prices started to fall in 2014. In the near-term, we don’t expect any others to follow suit. External risks in EM oil... 12th April 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Banking system faces consolidation rather than crisis Kenya’s banking sector is stronger and more resilient than recent headlines might imply. The failure of a few small banks poses little risk to the sector as a whole. Indeed, as we explain in this... 12th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Has Turkey regained competitiveness? There is some evidence that the fall in the lira in the past few years has led to import substitution in parts of Turkey’s manufacturing sector, suggesting that the economy’s competitiveness has... 12th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Resignation of Ukrainian PM reignites concerns over IMF deal The resignation of Ukraine’s prime minister on Sunday, coming alongside waning support for the government, will reignite concerns over the future of the country’s frozen IMF programme. While for now... 11th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Current Account (Feb.) The decline in Turkey’s current account deficit in February was due almost entirely to lower oil prices, which reduced the energy import bill. We think the deficit is unlikely to improve from here on... 11th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB’s mixed messages risk falling on deaf ears ECB officials appear to be trying to strike a balance between holding the door open to further policy action and yet stressing the limitations of monetary policy in order to pressure governments into... 8th April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production & Trade (Feb.) February’s trade and industrial production figures add to the evidence that the economy has made an uninspiring start to the year and suggest that growth remains heavily unbalanced. 8th April 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Current Account (Feb.) The current account surplus rebounded in February, but we expect the energy import bill to rise which should result in a narrower surplus in coming months. 8th April 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Feb.) Despite February’s decline in export volumes, earlier gains mean that exports in Q1 asa whole grew quite strongly, easily outpacing imports. Net exports likely contributedas much as 3 percentage... 7th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What’s behind the improvement in Brazil’s trade balance? The rapid improvement in Brazil’s trade balance is due mainly to a collapse in imports caused by the extreme weakness of domestic demand. But there are also signs that a weaker real is starting to... 6th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Internat’l Trade (Feb.) & ISM Non-Manu. (Mar.) The widening in the trade deficit to a six-month high of $47.1bn in February, from $45.9bn, means that net exports will be a drag on first-quarter GDP growth, which we now think was around 1.5%... 5th April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Actions rather than words may be needed to weaken the Australian dollar We were right to suggest that, while leaving interest rates on hold at 2.0% today, the Reserve Bank of Australia would use the policy statement to try to talk the dollar down. Whether or not this will... 5th April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Feb.) The unexpected widening in the international trade deficit in February and revisions to past data suggest that GDP growth may have slowed sharply in the first quarter. This makes it more important for... 5th April 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Uganda: Bank seizes fleeting opportunity for rate cut The Bank of Uganda is unlikely to follow today’s surprise rate cut with much more monetary easing this year. A variety of factors will force the Bank to keep policy tight. 4th April 2016 · 1 min read
