Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export recovery continues The rate at which EM exports are declining slowed sharply in March. We expect that higher commodity prices and an improvement in China’s economy will see export values return to growth later this year... 11th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Current Account (Mar.) The ongoing improvement in Turkey’s current account position in March was encouraging, but once again it was driven mainly by a falling energy import bill. Moreover, as last week’s sell-off in the... 10th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (Mar.) Despite the improvement in today’s trade figures for March, net trade still appears to still be dragging on GDP growth. And trade is set to make a larger negative contribution to the current account... 10th May 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity import demand remains robust The sharp year-on-year decline in China’s import values in April has attracted some negative headlines but largely reflects distortions around the timing of the Lunar New Year and the slump in... 9th May 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade & FX Reserves (Apr.) Trade growth was always likely to slow sharply in April after the seasonal surge in March. More positively, the contraction in both exports and imports wasn't as deep last month as it has been over... 9th May 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Collapse of capital inflows a big blow to economy The flow of foreign capital into Nigeria has slowed to a trickle. This will exacerbate the country’s serious balance of payment problems and further depress investment in an economy that is starved of... 5th May 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales & International Trade (Mar.) March’s international trade and retail sales data suggest that a boost to GDP growth from net trade probably more than offset an easing in consumption growth in the first quarter. We estimate that... 5th May 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Mar.) & Productivity (Q1) The decline in the trade deficit to a 13-month low of $40.4bn in March, from $47.0bn, was largely due to seasonal distortions created by the shifting date of the New Year holiday in China. 4th May 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Mar.) Despite a 25% m/m rebound in crude oil prices, the much larger than expected merchandise trade deficit in March suggests that the underlying momentum in the economy was weaker than widely assumed... 4th May 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf countries continue adjustment to cheap oil Saudi Arabia’s ambitious plans to overhaul its economy have grabbed the headlines in recent days, but the past month has seen a number of other Gulf countries announce further measures to deal with... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Conditions improve, but activity remains depressed The latest activity data from across Latin America have been encouraging, but the bigger picture is that the region’s economy is still struggling. Industrial and retail output in Brazil fell at a... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Has property finally turned the corner? A recovery in China’s property market appears to be giving a lift to economic growth. This should continue for a few quarters. But the turnaround does not signal that the drawn-out correction in China... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Conditions improve, but activity remains depressed The latest activity data from across Latin America have been encouraging, but the bigger picture is that the region’s economy is still struggling. Industrial and retail output in Brazil fell at a... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Surge in net external debt a long-term negative for dollar Although the current account deficit remains well below the peak reached in 2006, net external debt has soared to more than 40% of GDP, up from only 10% a decade ago. The external debt burden is still... 27th April 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Drought hits agricultural output in Thailand and Vietnam Vietnam and Thailand are facing their worst drought in decades, with water levels in the Mekong River at their lowest since 1926. The drought is already having an impact on growth. A decline in... 27th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru’s copper boom set to continue Surging copper production will continue to boost GDP growth in Peru over the next couple of years and, while growth is likely to ease in 2018 as mining output stabilises, we expect a recovery in other... 27th April 2016 · 1 min read
