Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q1) The surge in GDP in the first quarter means the RBA won’t be in a rush to cut interest rates again. But growth will slow during the rest of this year and we still think that continued low inflation... 1st June 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response GDP (Q1) There is some evidence that India’s economy has picked up speed recently but today’s remarkably strong GDP data are hard to believe. 31st May 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Trade surplus positive news ahead of ratings review Today’s trade figures will provide some support for the South African rand. But the currency still faces significant headwinds given political uncertainty and the looming risk of a government credit... 31st May 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What is going on with the renminbi? In trade-weighted terms, the renminbi has regained some lost ground recently. But all the headlinesare about it falling to multi-year lows against the dollar. This underlines the difficult position... 25th May 2016 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack June rate hike far from a done deal The minutes of the April FOMC meeting and subsequent comments by various Fed officials have prompted speculation that the Fed could raise interest rates as soon as next month. Treasury yields have... 25th May 2016 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor Brexit not a major threat to world trade The latest data confirm that world trade remained depressed in March, in part reflecting the weakness of global manufacturing. With little prospect of significant trade liberalisation in the coming... 24th May 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Surprise rate cut sign of reduced inflation risk The Central Bank of Kenya’s 100bp rate cut (from 11.50% to 10.50%) signals that the Bank believes that inflation is well-anchored. The wide current account deficit will limit the scope for further... 23rd May 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China’s metals import demand remained strong in April The volume of China’s metals imports generally eased back last month from their March highs, but were still buoyant. With copper stocks starting to fall, signs of a cyclical pick-up in the economy and... 23rd May 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Apr.) Export values continued to fall sharply in April, and the further strengthening of the exchange rate suggests that the drag from falling export prices should persist for now. 23rd May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM central banks pause for breath Emerging market policymakers have been in tightening mode over the past year, but this reversed last month. Our EM interest rate diffusion index shows that more EM central banks cut rates than hiked... 20th May 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australian government bonds to outperform US Treasuries Our forecasts that interest rates in Australia will remain low for longer than the markets expect while rates in the US will rise further than widely believed are consistent with government bonds in... 20th May 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP & Current Account (Q1) The rebound in Chilean GDP growth in Q1 suggests that recent concerns that the economy is heading for a renewed downturn this year were premature. Nonetheless, we doubt growth will accelerate much... 18th May 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Can the rest of MENA weather the slowdown in the Gulf? Economic growth in the Gulf countries has slowed sharply in recent months and this has raised concerns of negative spillovers into the other MENA economies. In this Watch, we argue that, for most... 17th May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Mar.) While the euro-zone trade surplus widened in March, this reflected a drop in the value of imports rather than export strength. Subdued global demand growth and the recent appreciation of the euro... 17th May 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Oil disruptions add to economic woes The sharp fall in Nigeria’s oil production could, if sustained, shave more than 1%-pt off GDP growth this year. Lower oil output will also add to the country’s fiscal and current account problems. 16th May 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Import weakness to keep trade deficit in check India’s monthly trade deficit narrowed to a five-year low in April. With a number of factors likely to keep commodity imports in check, the overall current account position is unlikely to return as a... 16th May 2016 · 1 min read
