Africa Economic Outlook Gradual acceleration, but recovery will be slow After two years of progressively slower growth, most African economies will strengthen in 2017. This recovery will be driven by rising commodity prices, which should ease strains in the balance of... 22nd August 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Export struggles to continue The recent improvement in export performance across Emerging Asia owes more to the fading effects of the collapse in commodity prices on export values than a recovery in underlying demand. We expect... 19th August 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP & Current Account (Q2) The quarterly contraction in Chilean GDP in Q2 is a disappointing sign that the economy remains fragile. But we don’t expect the weakness to persist and revisions to past data mean that the economy is... 18th August 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External trade (Jul.) The trade surplus declined only slightly in July, but business surveys still point to a sharp fall in export volumes this quarter. 18th August 2016 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack G20 blues lie ahead Residents of the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) can look forward to unusually clear skies as restrictions on industry to limit pollution ahead of next month’s G20 summit come into effect. According to... 17th August 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s CA deficit narrows, but more work to do elsewhere The further narrowing of Brazil’s current account deficit in June has significantly reduced the vulnerability of the country’s financial markets to external shocks. Elsewhere, however, there is still... 16th August 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global imbalances to remain small by past standards The world’s main current account imbalances look set to widen a bit in the coming years but should not pose a serious threat to the global economy. Oil producers’ surpluses probably won’t reappear... 16th August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Aug.) & Euro-zone Trade (Jun.) August’s German ZEW investor survey shows that sentiment has partly recovered from July’s Brexit-related decline, but it still points to a sharp slowdown in German GDP growth to come. 16th August 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Gold bond scheme showing signs of success India’s monthly trade deficit narrowed in July and, with the government’s sovereign gold bond scheme helping to keep a lid on imports of the precious metal, the external position is unlikely to return... 15th August 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Stronger yen to drag on exports The sharp weakening of the yen in the early stages of Abenomics helped to shield Japanese exporters from the slowdown in global demand. However, the renewed strengthening of the exchange rate since... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor A pause, not a reversal, in recovery of EM exports The slightly faster decline in EM exports recorded in June compared to May was due to price and currency effects that should prove short-lived. The recovery will continue over the coming months. 11th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production & Trade (Jun.) June’s figures on industrial production and trade were fairly disappointing, suggesting that April’s strong manufacturing growth was not sustained and net trade will probably provide little support to... 9th August 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Iron ore bucks weak China commodity imports Growth in China’s commodity import volumes slowed in July, despite some recent encouraging signs from activity indicators. In some cases, higher domestic output is edging out imports. In others, ample... 8th August 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Growth not strong enough to boost price pressures Weak survey evidence notwithstanding, the economy likely continued to recover in the second quarter, while the labour market has rarely been tighter. However, wage growth remains anaemic and the past... 8th August 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade & FX Reserves (Jul.) Today’s trade data disappointed, with stronger manufacturing activity among many of China’s key trading partners failing to lift export growth and import growth falling on the back of the renewed drop... 8th August 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Export growth muted even without a trade war The economy’s reliance on trade with the US means that the current US presidential election campaign could be pivotal for Canada’s export outlook. The big question is whether a President Trump would... 5th August 2016 · 1 min read
