China Economics Update SDR inclusion could remove near-term support for RMB The inclusion of the renminbi in the IMF’s SDR basket at the start of October will have minimal impact on foreign demand for renminbi assets and therefore offers little support for the Chinese... 26th September 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Would President Trump start a trade war? It is impossible to be sure what Donald Trump would actually do if he became US President but ourbest guess is that he would back away from his most radical proposals on trade policy. And even if he... 26th September 2016 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor Downturn easing, but outlook remains bleak The volume of world trade appears to have recovered a bit in the past few months.Even so, the prospects for global trade over the coming years remain poor, and couldworsen dramatically if Donald Trump... 22nd September 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update External vulnerabilities remain low India’s current account deficit all but held steady at a low level in Q2, which leaves the economy well placed to weather any sudden shifts in global risk appetite over the coming months. 22nd September 2016 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Rollout of GST is edging closer Progress in implementing the Goods and Services Tax (GST) since the bill was passed in parliament in early August has so far been fairly smooth. However, there are still a number of sticking points... 21st September 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External trade (Aug.) The contraction in both export and import values eased last month despite the ongoing price drag from the stronger yen. Export volumes are holding up well as the bulk is invoiced in currencies other... 21st September 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update A look ahead to Saudi Arabia’s international bond issuance Saudi Arabia’s upcoming international bond sale has sparked a lot of investor interest and we estimate that the Kingdom will manage to sell its 10-year debt for a relatively low yield of 3.50-3.75%... 20th September 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Aug.) According to our detailed estimates, capital flows out of China were stable last month after rising slightly in July. Global investors continued to pull money out of the country, but Chinese... 20th September 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly End of tourism boom no disaster The stronger yen has brought Japan’s tourism boom to a halt. However, the importance ofoverseas visitors for economic activity remains small. The bigger risks from the appreciation ofthe exchange rate... 16th September 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Baht not to blame for Thailand’s export woes Recent claims by Thai exporters and policymakers that a “strong” baht is to blame for the country’s poor export performance are wrong. The baht does not look strong relative to the currencies of its... 16th September 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Lower import bill will keep trade deficit in check The monthly trade deficit narrowed a touch in August and, with a number of factors likely to keep commodity imports in check, the overall current account position is unlikely to return as a source of... 16th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Jul.) & Final CPI (Aug.) July’s euro-zone goods trade data suggest that net exports were a drag on GDP growth at the start of Q3. Looking ahead, we expect the trade surplus to narrow further this year as global demand growth... 15th September 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response S. Africa Current Account (Q2) South Africa’s current account position improved by more than we’d expected in Q2, but the shortfall will still probably remain relatively wide over the coming year. 13th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM economies now less vulnerable to US rate hikes The sudden sell-off in EMs that started on Friday, triggered by hawkish comments from the head of the Boston Fed Eric Rosengreen, points to a turbulent period ahead for EM financial markets as the... 12th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports stumble, but recovery will continue We think that one-off disruptions explain most of the fall in EM exports in July. More timely data already suggest that EM export growth was stronger in August. 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Looser ECB policy will still pull the euro down The ECB’s decision last week not to announce an extension to its asset purchase programme led us to revise our year-end forecast for the euro exchange rate. But we still think that looser monetary... 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
