China Data Response FX reserves (Sep.) The value of China’s FX reserves declined further last month, as the People’s Bank continued to intervene heavily to shore up the renminbi. With few signs that capital outflow pressures are abating... 7th October 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack US election and “Brexit” having little economic impact The upcoming Presidential election does not seem to be having much impact on economic activity either in the US itself or elsewhere. Admittedly, it looks at first sight as if recent movements in... 6th October 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: devaluation needed for capital flows to pick up Some analysts have argued that Egypt won’t devalue the pound until the country has a sustainable source of capital inflows, but we think this misses the point. The country is unlikely to experience a... 6th October 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Aug.) The sharp narrowing in the trade deficit in August rounds off a good week of data for the Australian economy and suggests that GDP growth in the third quarter may have been stronger than the 0.5% q/q... 6th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Internat’l Trade (Aug.) & ISM Non-Manu. (Sep.) Although the trade deficit widened slightly to $40.7bn in August, from $39.5bn, net external trade is now on track to make a big contribution to third-quarter GDP growth. Elsewhere, the big rebound in... 5th October 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Aug. 16) The modest decline in the trade deficit to $1.9bn in August, from $2.2bn, was entirely due to price effects, with the real deficit actually widening slightly. Exports increased by 0.6% m/m in nominal... 5th October 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update What would President Trump mean for Japan? We wouldn’t be overly concerned about a US tariff on Japanese imports should Donald Trump become president, as Japanese manufacturers mostly serve their US customers from their US subsidiaries. By... 5th October 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Loose monetary and fiscal policy to support growth While Emerging Asia continues to face headwinds, loose fiscal and monetary policy in most economies should continue to support demand over the next couple of years, and we expect regional growth to... 4th October 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Trump’s trade complaints put Canada in the firing line During the first US presidential debate last week, Republican nominee Donald Trump predictably returned to one of the central themes of his campaign; that the US is being cheated by global trade rules... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will the housing market hold back the economy? In contrast to the mostly upbeat data on the state of the economy after the Brexit vote, the housing market still appears to be cooling. But we don’t think house prices or transactions will fall too... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response National Accounts & Balance of Payments (Q2) Today’s Quarterly National Accounts and Balance of Payments figures for Q2 showed that the economy was even more resilient ahead of the EU referendum than previously thought, although it remained... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Offshoring, the yen & inflation Japanese manufacturers continue to increase production in their overseas subsidiaries. However, only a fraction of the goods produced overseas are re-imported to Japan. With the overall importance of... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update FDI inflows should recover soon Concerns in some quarters over the slowdown in foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows in Q2 appear to be overdone. For a start, a smaller current account deficit means that India is now far less... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How much would a Trump tariff hurt China? An across-the-board 45% tariff on imports from China may end up raising retail prices in the US by only 10%, and less still if Chinese policymakers responded by allowing the renminbi to weaken. With... 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
RBI Watch New governor to opt for policy continuity Much of the commentary in the run-up to Dr Urjit Patel’s first policy meeting as RBI governor on 4th October has been focused on whether he will take on the mantle of his predecessor Raghuram Rajan... 28th September 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Trump, the US election and the implications for Latin America Donald Trump’s performance in last night’s first US presidential election debate doesn’t appear to have done himself any favours, but his election in November is still a real possibility. This would... 27th September 2016 · 1 min read
