Europe Economics Update The Netherlands will be hit harder than most by Brexit The Dutch economy is more vulnerable than most to a downturn in the UK. In turn, the negative labour market impact could boost support for eurosceptic parties ahead of next year’s elections. 11th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (May) & GfK Consumer Confidence (Jul.) While the latest trade figures highlighted the unbalanced nature of the recovery, GfK’s “Brexit special” consumer confidence figures provided some worrying signs that the main engine of growth may be... 8th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response French Industrial Production & German Trade (May) May’s decline in French industrial production only partly reversed April’s gain but combined with falls elsewhere leaves euro-zone industry looking weak. And Germany’s trade balance fell from its... 8th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook EM pick-up to prove short-lived EM growth is likely to accelerate over the second half of this year, but a downward shift in potential growth means the recovery could hit the buffers in 2017-18. 7th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Internat’l Trade (May) & ISM Non-Manu. (Jun.) Despite the widening in the nominal trade deficit to $41.1bn in May, from $37.4bn, net trade probably still provided a small boost to second-quarter GDP growth, which we suspect was close to 3%... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (May) The merchandise trade deficit was broadly unchanged at C$3.3bn in May, thanks in part to an upward revision to the April figure. Despite the disruptions to oil sands production from the Alberta... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales & International Trade (May) Weaker-than-expected retail sales and international trade figures for May provide further evidence that GDP growth probably slowed sharply in the second quarter. This won’t be enough to persuade the... 5th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly How far will inflation rise? Although the slide in the trade-weighted sterling index of a little below 10% since the referendum result will give exporters a much-needed boost to their competitiveness, it will also lift the prices... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Brexit to hit France harder than Germany On the face of it, Germany seems more exposed than France to the effects of the UK leaving the EU. But in the time before the UK actually leaves the single market, France is more vulnerable than... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Brexit vote doesn’t change the task facing the Fed While the UK Brexit vote triggered some initial volatility in financial markets, many of the adverse moves have already been unwound and overall financial conditions in the US remain considerably... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly China’s move up the value chain – what it means for Korea China’s move up the value chain is proving a major challenge for Korean exporters. Poor export prospects are just one reason why we expect Korea’s economy to struggle over the next few years. 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Which industries suffer most from the stronger yen? While the yen has weakened slightly over the past week as concerns about the impact of Brexit have faded, it is still around 20% stronger than it was at the start of the year. A stronger currency... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Households can cope with lower wealth Although the recent poor performance of equity prices means that household wealth may decline in the first half of the year, we doubt this will significantly restrain consumption growth. Households... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response National Accounts & Balance of Payments (Q1) Today’s Quarterly National Accounts and Balance of Payments data for Q1 highlighted the imbalances in the UK economy which should come under more scrutiny in light of last week’s Brexit vote. 30th June 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook MENA region set for weakest growth since the 1980s This year looks set to be the toughest for the economies of the Middle East and North Africa in almost three decades. The Gulf countries will continue to tighten fiscal policy in response to low oil... 29th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Jun.) June’s CBI Distributive Trades Survey paints a fairly disappointing picture of the retail sector in the days preceding the EU referendum. However, the survey hasn’t been an especially reliable guide... 28th June 2016 · 1 min read