Japan Economics Weekly Surge in current account highlights sluggish demand The strong recent increase in the current account surplus is bad news for an economy struggling with persistently weak demand, as it implies that households and firms have saved rather than spent the... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The mixed and messy labour market While the Reserve Bank of Australia would do well to ignore the recent falls in employment, it will be getting more concerned that the rising share of employees working part-time will keep wage growth... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico’s star begins to fade Mexico’s faltering economy probably escaped recession in Q3 – but it’s a close call. Our GDP growth forecast for this year was already below consensus but we are nudging it down from 2.0% to 1.8%... 20th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What to make of the surge in EM foreign currency debt sales Sovereign foreign currency bond sales by emerging markets could top $100bn this year although, outside a couple of vulnerable countries, it seems unlikely that these will cause future debt problems. 17th October 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Exports showing signs of recovery Trade data for September showed the strongest annual growth in export values in almost two years. Looking ahead, exports should continue to recover, but the government’s target of nearly doubling... 17th October 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) Bank lending picked up in September and a broader measure of private sector credit expanded at the fastest pace since the launch of QQE in Q2. Meanwhile, low returns at home have encouraged Japanese... 17th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Sep.) Our Tracker shows that total capital outflows from the emerging world eased a little last month, and they remain well below the levels seen earlier in the year. 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Aug.) The euro-zone’s goods trade surplus rose in August, but it probably fell over Q3 as a whole. Looking ahead, we think that the trade surplus will narrow further this year as global demand growth... 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s September commodity imports hold up rather well A renewed contraction in China’s import bill grabbed the headlines this morning, but China’s commodity import volumes were actually surprisingly strong last month. 13th October 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Sep.) Advanced economies have been suffering from weak underlying demand, partly due to a mix of demographic and technological changes. Looking ahead, there is some scope for a rebound in private investment... 13th October 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Rise in Saudi interest rates has further to go Clinton’s housing proposals will not give homeownership much of a boost. The focus on down payments ignores the fact that it is the need for a high credit score which is preventing many Americans from... 12th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Current Account (Aug.) A decline in tourism receipts caused Turkey’s current account deficit to widen further on a 12-month basis in August and ongoing security concerns will keep tourism revenues subdued and the external... 12th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Rising political risks threaten growth outlook The European economy appears to have weathered the initial impact of the UK’s vote to leave the European Union reasonably well. However, the vote could yet have important indirect effects by fuelling... 11th October 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Slowdown in services inflation highlights failure of QQE Recent data suggest that the economic recovery may be a touch stronger than we had been expecting. However, there are no signs that the tight labour market is fuelling price pressures. While the Bank... 10th October 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What would a Trump victory mean for Asia? It remains to be seen if Donald Trump would follow through on some of his more protectionist policies if he is elected president of the United States. If he did, then the repercussions for some parts... 7th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production & Trade (Aug.) While August’s industrial production and trade data provided a break from therecent run of positive data, the economy still appeared to weather the Brexit votebetter than most expected in Q3. 7th October 2016 · 1 min read
