Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Sep.) The recent leap in coal prices explains a lot of the sharp narrowing in the trade deficit to a 20-month low in September. If coal prices stay at current levels the deficit could even be wiped out... 3rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Retail sales growth slows sharply as inflation rises The euro-zone’s consumer sector appears to have had another poor quarter in Q3. Retail sales volumes were flat in August, while timelier national data point to a contraction in sales in September... 1st November 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Exports record first positive growth in two years The dollar value of exports from Emerging Asia (excluding China) grew in August by 3.1% y/y – the first expansion in nearly two years. The recent improvement in export performance owes more to the... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly How fast will inflation rise? Both headline and underlying inflation in Australia will probably rise over the next year and, by boosting economic growth and reducing spare capacity, the recent leap in commodity prices raises the... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Canada caught in the global backlash against free trade The potential collapse of Canada’s Comprehensive Economic Trade Agreement (CETA) with the European Union would not be a big economic blow, since estimates suggested that even the long-term boost to... 27th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Commodity producers and China drive EM recovery EM GDP is currently growing at its fastest pace in 18 months, with the recovery being driven mainly bystronger growth in commodity producers as well as an upturn in China. According to our GDP tracker... 26th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Setbacks in EU-Canada trade deal bode ill for EU growth The latest setbacks in ratifying an EU-Canada trade deal have larger direct economic implications for Canada than for the EU. But the political deadlock bodes ill for future EU trade agreements which... 26th October 2016 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor World trade still weak as Belgium blocks EU-Canada deal Notwithstanding one or two more positive signs, world trade remains in the doldrums. And the fact that the EU-Canada trade agreement may be scuppered by a regional Belgian government does not bode... 25th October 2016 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Core price pressures remain elevated Much of the focus both before and after the RBI’s decision to cut the repo rate by 25bp (to 6.25%) in early October has been on the sharp fall in headline inflation over the past couple of months. But... 25th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Economy still struggling to shake off its malaise GDP growth does appear to have accelerated in the third quarter but, after a year of below potential growth, the economy is still struggling to shake off the effects of the stronger dollar and the... 24th October 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Sep.) According to our detailed estimates, capital flows out of China picked up last month. Global investors have regained some of their appetite for renminbi assets, but Chinese households and firms are... 24th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports recover as commodity prices stabilise South Africa’s manufacturing PMI fell dramatically last month. The sharp fall in the measure of future conditions suggests that hopes of a swift improvement in the country’s economic and political... 24th October 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) The fifth straight rise in the manufacturing PMI in October indicates that firms are dealing well with the headwind from a stronger exchange rate. What’s more, the survey suggests that consumer prices... 24th October 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External trade (Sep.) The contraction in export values eased last month as the drag from falling prices is fading, and export volumes recorded the strongest rise since January last year. However, the renewed recent... 24th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly GDP growth boosted by strong export performance The third-quarter GDP figures, due for release late this week, could provide a further boost to Clinton’s chances of winning. Although if our estimate that GDP growth picked up to 2.5% annualised is... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Shift away from US could damage Philippines’ economy The Philippines’ shift towards closer ties with China is unlikely to bring many economic benefits to the country. And by upsetting the US there is a risk that President Duterte undermines a much more... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read