Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Current Account (Sep.) Troubles in Turkey’s tourism sector caused the current account deficit to widen even further in September, to around 4.7% of GDP. The wide external shortfall means that the lira is likely to remain... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Malaysia GDP (Q3) GDP growth in Malaysia picked up in the third quarter of 2016, and while the worst for the economy is now over, a sharp rebound is unlikely. 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Treading water Despite having a sizeable output gap, Japan’s economy has expanded at a pace no stronger than potential this year so slack in the economy has not been reduced. One reason is that consumer spending has... 10th November 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Opportunities for China from Trump’s election Despite the threat of being hit with high tariffs and being labelled a currency manipulator, China will see benefits in the election of Donald Trump. In the near term, the dollar’s weakness against... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Trump win could widen policy divergence next year We suspect that the Nordic and Swiss economies will see limited effects from Mr Trump’s victory. Butit makes monetary policy divergence between Switzerland and Sweden next year slightly more likely. 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What does Trump’s victory mean for policymakers in Asia? The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left interest rates unchanged at 1.50% today and is likely to be in little hurry to adjust monetary policy over the coming year. Elsewhere in the region, the increase in... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (Sep.) The latest trade figures highlighted that a better performance from the external sector was one of the factors behind the strength of GDP growth in Q3. And the drop in the pound should have some... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Japan’s hopes for the TPP dead and buried The yen may strengthen a little further as increased uncertainty adds to safe haven demand, and Japanese exporters may face a less welcoming environment for trade. But, for Japan, the key immediate... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports dip in October China’s commodity import volumes declined last month, despite signs of a pick-up in activity data. We think this reflected disruptions caused by the week-long holiday, higher commodity prices and some... 8th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & Trade (Sep.) September’s sharp drop in German industrial production partly reflected payback from a sharp rise last month, and production posted a solid gain in Q3 as a whole. Nonetheless, the data are... 8th November 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Oct.) Imports continue to recover, helped by the recent strength of domestic demand, but exports remain subdued. With both global and domestic growth unlikely to accelerate much further, the medium-term... 8th November 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Capital inflow figures cause for muted optimism The rise of capital inflows into Nigeria in Q3 suggests that the worst of the problems in the country’s balance of payments are over. But significant strains remain. 7th November 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX reserves (Oct.) The biggest decline in the value of China’s foreign exchange reserves since the start of the year has more to do with movements in exchange rates and asset prices than sales by the People’s Bank... 7th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Economy sustains its momentum but price pressures rise The latest business surveys suggest that the economy maintained its strength at the start of Q4. Gains in both the Markit/CIPS services and construction PMIs in October left the economy-wide composite... 3rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Domestic risks to Europe easily trump the US election A Trump victory in next week’s US election could prompt an unwelcome appreciation of the euro exchange rate, but we suspect that this would be short-lived. What’s more, other effects on euro-zone... 3rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Trump & the Mexican peso: how low can you go? The likely market sell-off in response to a victory for Donald Trump next week could push the Mexican peso to as low as 25/$. What happens to the peso beyond the initial sell-off would depend upon... 3rd November 2016 · 1 min read
