Asia Economics Update China trade pact will not compensate for failure of TPP The demise of the TPP is a blow to economic prospects in Emerging Asia. The benefits of a China-led regional trade deal are likely to be much smaller. 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Trump: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ The markets have convinced themselves that there is a major fiscal stimulus coming early next year, that a roll-back of regulation will boost the financial sector and that Trump will take a much... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Property market starting to cool One of the key drivers of the economic turnaround this year, the property market,is starting to cool. Growth in the prices of new residential properties slumped inOctober in the largest (tier 1 and... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus EM exports after the Golden Era Last month, we published a Focus outlining why we think the golden era for EM growth has passed and why the emerging world is set for structurally weaker growth. In this Focus, we explain why the same... 17th November 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What weapons would China wield in a trade war? In the event of a trade war with the US, China’s response would go well beyond tariff increases. US companies would find their products and operations in China subject to tighter regulation that... 17th November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus World trade in the Trump era The election of Donald Trump is the clearest expression so far of the growing anti-globalisation sentiment across advanced economies. Initially at least, we think that his bark will prove to be worse... 16th November 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update External position healthy despite wider trade deficit Although the monthly trade deficit widened a touch in October, a number of factors should keep it in check over the coming months. This should keep India’s financial markets relatively secure in the... 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Tepid recovery for EM trade as protectionist threats mount The year-on-year contraction in EM trade growth seen in recent years is easing as values stabilise. But trade growth will not return to the rapid rates seen before 2012. A move towards protectionism... 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How a weaker pound will benefit Egypt’s economy The sharp fall in the Egyptian pound since it was floated earlier this month should help to narrow the country’s current account deficit and support a pick-up in private capital inflows. If backed up... 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Could the RCEP compensate for the demise of the TPP? The potential benefits for Japan from the proposed RCEP trade deal in Asia are similar in scale to those that might have been achieved under the TPP. But they are not substitutes for each other: gains... 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Picking apart the post-Trump sell-off The sell-off in EM markets following Donald Trump’s victory appears to have been driven by a general rise in investor risk aversion, rather than specific concerns over a shift towards greater trade... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Trump win could still be bad for Canada The rebound in financial markets following Donald Trump’s conciliatory acceptance speech is a positive sign for Canada’s economy. But his personal volatility and still potentially harsh views on trade... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Five questions (and answers) about Trump and Asia Donald Trump’s surprise election victory has created a great deal of uncertainty for the region. In this Weekly, we answer five key questions. 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Oct.) Our Tracker shows that total capital outflows from the emerging world declined a little last month, and were barely a third of the size seen earlier in the year. The sell-off in EM financial markets... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Where is political risk greatest? Last week’s US election result raised the question of where the next political shock might be. The popularity of far-right candidates and forthcoming major elections make France and the Netherlands... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What are President Trump’s options on NAFTA? The wholesale renegotiation of NAFTA that Donald Trump talked about on the campaign trail would require approval by Congress and seems unlikely to happen. But President Trump will have broad powers to... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
