Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Aug. 16) The modest decline in the trade deficit to $1.9bn in August, from $2.2bn, was entirely due to price effects, with the real deficit actually widening slightly. Exports increased by 0.6% m/m in nominal... 5th October 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update What would President Trump mean for Japan? We wouldn’t be overly concerned about a US tariff on Japanese imports should Donald Trump become president, as Japanese manufacturers mostly serve their US customers from their US subsidiaries. By... 5th October 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Loose monetary and fiscal policy to support growth While Emerging Asia continues to face headwinds, loose fiscal and monetary policy in most economies should continue to support demand over the next couple of years, and we expect regional growth to... 4th October 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Trump’s trade complaints put Canada in the firing line During the first US presidential debate last week, Republican nominee Donald Trump predictably returned to one of the central themes of his campaign; that the US is being cheated by global trade rules... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will the housing market hold back the economy? In contrast to the mostly upbeat data on the state of the economy after the Brexit vote, the housing market still appears to be cooling. But we don’t think house prices or transactions will fall too... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response National Accounts & Balance of Payments (Q2) Today’s Quarterly National Accounts and Balance of Payments figures for Q2 showed that the economy was even more resilient ahead of the EU referendum than previously thought, although it remained... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Offshoring, the yen & inflation Japanese manufacturers continue to increase production in their overseas subsidiaries. However, only a fraction of the goods produced overseas are re-imported to Japan. With the overall importance of... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update FDI inflows should recover soon Concerns in some quarters over the slowdown in foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows in Q2 appear to be overdone. For a start, a smaller current account deficit means that India is now far less... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How much would a Trump tariff hurt China? An across-the-board 45% tariff on imports from China may end up raising retail prices in the US by only 10%, and less still if Chinese policymakers responded by allowing the renminbi to weaken. With... 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
RBI Watch New governor to opt for policy continuity Much of the commentary in the run-up to Dr Urjit Patel’s first policy meeting as RBI governor on 4th October has been focused on whether he will take on the mantle of his predecessor Raghuram Rajan... 28th September 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Trump, the US election and the implications for Latin America Donald Trump’s performance in last night’s first US presidential election debate doesn’t appear to have done himself any favours, but his election in November is still a real possibility. This would... 27th September 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update SDR inclusion could remove near-term support for RMB The inclusion of the renminbi in the IMF’s SDR basket at the start of October will have minimal impact on foreign demand for renminbi assets and therefore offers little support for the Chinese... 26th September 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Would President Trump start a trade war? It is impossible to be sure what Donald Trump would actually do if he became US President but ourbest guess is that he would back away from his most radical proposals on trade policy. And even if he... 26th September 2016 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor Downturn easing, but outlook remains bleak The volume of world trade appears to have recovered a bit in the past few months.Even so, the prospects for global trade over the coming years remain poor, and couldworsen dramatically if Donald Trump... 22nd September 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update External vulnerabilities remain low India’s current account deficit all but held steady at a low level in Q2, which leaves the economy well placed to weather any sudden shifts in global risk appetite over the coming months. 22nd September 2016 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Rollout of GST is edging closer Progress in implementing the Goods and Services Tax (GST) since the bill was passed in parliament in early August has so far been fairly smooth. However, there are still a number of sticking points... 21st September 2016 · 1 min read