Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Nov.) Our Tracker shows that total capital outflows from the emerging world reached a ten-month high of $75bn last month. This was driven mainly by an acceleration in outflows from China, but it seems that... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly No end in sight for ECB monetary support While the ECB opted to extend its Asset Purchase Programme (APP) at a slower monthly pace than anticipated, there is no immediate end in sight in terms of its duration. Indeed, we think that the ECB... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly What explains the manufacturing sector’s decline? Despite claims that China is to blame for the five million manufacturing jobs lost since 2001, the evidence suggests that rapid productivity gains, driven by rising automation, have also played a... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (Oct.) The UK’s trade deficit narrowed sharply in October, following a large upward revision to the Q3 deficit. And the drop in the pound should support net trade’s contribution to GDP growth in the coming... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response French Industrial Production & German Trade (Oct.) October’s French industrial production and German trade data, combined with soft data released earlier in the week, suggest that the euro-zone’s largest economies made a slower start to the fourth... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response S. Africa Current Account (Q3) South Africa’s current account position deteriorated again in Q3. The wide deficit is the key reason why we expect that the rand will remain under pressure in 2017. 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus What to expect in 2017 China defied the bears this year with an economic turnaround that took many by surprise. But the current strength cannot be sustained and the risk now is that many don’t appreciate how soon growth... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Economy weathering political risks The euro-zone economy still seems to be weathering the effects of political upsets and uncertainty at home and abroad well. The PMI and EC survey indicators rose in November, consistent with an... 8th December 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Nov.) Better-than-expected trade data out of China today reflects both an uptick in global demand as well as the continued strength of the domestic economy. 8th December 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Oct.) The unexpected widening in the trade deficit in October is worrying as it implies net exports may be a big drag on GDP growth in the fourth quarter. After yesterday’s news that GDP contracted in the... 8th December 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Growth to return in 2017 After two years of falling output, Latin America’s economy finally looks set to return to growth next year. Brazil and Argentina should exit recessions, while the downturns in Colombia and Chile are... 7th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & French Trade (Oct.) October’s German industrial production and French trade data suggest that the euro-zone’s largest economies made a slower start to the fourth quarter than the business surveys had implied. 7th December 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX reserves (Nov.) A big decline in China’s FX reserves last month confirms that the People’s Bank had to step up intervention in the face of a surging US dollar and more rapid capital outflows. 7th December 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Year ending on a positive note After accelerating a little in Q3, business surveys suggest that the world economy has continued growing at a fairly rapid pace in the final months of 2016. Labour market data for the US have been... 6th December 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Oct.) The decline in export volumes in October, following the sharp fall in the month before, suggest that export growth this quarter might turn out a lot weaker than even we had assumed. Accordingly, the... 6th December 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Oct.) The sharp widening in the trade deficit in October was mainly a result of the unwinding of the distortion caused by the spike in soybean exports earlier in the summer. It also suggests that net trade... 6th December 2016 · 1 min read
