UK Economics National Accounts & Balance of Payments (Q3) The latest Quarterly National Accounts suggest that the economy grew more quickly after the referendum than previously estimated. Moreover, the latest surveys suggest that the economy will turn in... 23rd December 2016 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor Prospects for world trade still weak The latest data show that world trade fell in October, continuing the renewed slowdown since 2015. Looking ahead, while world trade is unlikely to collapse, it will probably remain sluggish for years... 22nd December 2016 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Reform agenda takes off in 2016 2016 will be remembered as the year that Prime Minister Modi finally began to deliver on promises of much-needed economic reform. However, with a number of state elections due to take place over the... 21st December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Are exporters squandering the drop in the pound? On the face of it, the early evidence suggests that exporters are using the drop in the pound to boost margins as opposed to market share. This poses a risk to our optimistic forecasts for exports... 20th December 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Mixed performance in Q3, but surveys bode well for Q4 Recent national accounts data showed a marked divergence in quarterly economic growth in Q3, with the Swiss economy stagnating while the Icelandic economy expanded by an impressive 4.6% q/q. In the... 20th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports set for modest recovery in 2017 EM exports performed poorly in 2016, but the rate of contraction eased later in the year. We expect that things will get better in 2017, though growth will remain modest. 19th December 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External trade (Nov.) The sharp weakening of the yen has contributed to a rebound in the annual growth rate of trade values. However, since imports are invoiced in foreign currency more often than exports, the trade... 19th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Rising UK trade surplus another risk for the euro-zone The euro-zone’s trade surplus with the UK is likely to fall as a result of sterling’s depreciation. We think that this will reduce euro-zone GDP growth by about 0.1 percentage points per year in 2017... 16th December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Should inflation expectations concern the MPC? The MPC has not surprisingly emphasised the importance of inflation expectations in determining the degree to which it is prepared to tolerate an overshoot of the inflation target. After all, low... 16th December 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What to expect in 2017 The past year has been a mixed one for Asian economies, with buoyant domestic demand helping to compensate for continued weak export growth. But will next year be any better? In our penultimate Weekly... 16th December 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Boost from net trade to fizzle out next year The recent sharp fall in import volumes is largely a legacy of the slump in the exchange rate in the early stages of Abenomics. We expect imports to rebound next year, so the boost from net trade to... 16th December 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Export rebound continues, but government target too ambitious Trade data for November show that export values continued to recover last month. Looking ahead, export growth should remain positive, but the government’s target of nearly doubling export values from... 16th December 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update What to expect in 2017 and beyond Donald Trump’s surprise win in the Presidential election has introduced uncertainty across a number of policy dimensions, but the likelihood of a significant fiscal stimulus next year points to a pick... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Malaysia moves to stabilise the ringgit The Malaysian central bank (BNM) has introduced a range of measures to stabilise the ringgit, which has been the region’s worst performing currency over the past month. The most significant step it... 14th December 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Balance of payments position remains secure The narrowing in India’s current account deficit over a four-quarter sum in Q3, along with another rise in net FDI inflows, leaves the economy looking well-placed to cope in the event of a renewed... 14th December 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack The tide for the yen has turned The Bank of Japan’s favourite gauge of underlying price pressures remains just a touch above zero. However, spare capacity is narrowing and growth in part-time pay has started to pick up. What’s more... 12th December 2016 · 1 min read
