Japan Economics Update Japan’s hopes for the TPP dead and buried The yen may strengthen a little further as increased uncertainty adds to safe haven demand, and Japanese exporters may face a less welcoming environment for trade. But, for Japan, the key immediate... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports dip in October China’s commodity import volumes declined last month, despite signs of a pick-up in activity data. We think this reflected disruptions caused by the week-long holiday, higher commodity prices and some... 8th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & Trade (Sep.) September’s sharp drop in German industrial production partly reflected payback from a sharp rise last month, and production posted a solid gain in Q3 as a whole. Nonetheless, the data are... 8th November 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Oct.) Imports continue to recover, helped by the recent strength of domestic demand, but exports remain subdued. With both global and domestic growth unlikely to accelerate much further, the medium-term... 8th November 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Capital inflow figures cause for muted optimism The rise of capital inflows into Nigeria in Q3 suggests that the worst of the problems in the country’s balance of payments are over. But significant strains remain. 7th November 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX reserves (Oct.) The biggest decline in the value of China’s foreign exchange reserves since the start of the year has more to do with movements in exchange rates and asset prices than sales by the People’s Bank... 7th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Economy sustains its momentum but price pressures rise The latest business surveys suggest that the economy maintained its strength at the start of Q4. Gains in both the Markit/CIPS services and construction PMIs in October left the economy-wide composite... 3rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Domestic risks to Europe easily trump the US election A Trump victory in next week’s US election could prompt an unwelcome appreciation of the euro exchange rate, but we suspect that this would be short-lived. What’s more, other effects on euro-zone... 3rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Trump & the Mexican peso: how low can you go? The likely market sell-off in response to a victory for Donald Trump next week could push the Mexican peso to as low as 25/$. What happens to the peso beyond the initial sell-off would depend upon... 3rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Sep.) The recent leap in coal prices explains a lot of the sharp narrowing in the trade deficit to a 20-month low in September. If coal prices stay at current levels the deficit could even be wiped out... 3rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Retail sales growth slows sharply as inflation rises The euro-zone’s consumer sector appears to have had another poor quarter in Q3. Retail sales volumes were flat in August, while timelier national data point to a contraction in sales in September... 1st November 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Exports record first positive growth in two years The dollar value of exports from Emerging Asia (excluding China) grew in August by 3.1% y/y – the first expansion in nearly two years. The recent improvement in export performance owes more to the... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly How fast will inflation rise? Both headline and underlying inflation in Australia will probably rise over the next year and, by boosting economic growth and reducing spare capacity, the recent leap in commodity prices raises the... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Canada caught in the global backlash against free trade The potential collapse of Canada’s Comprehensive Economic Trade Agreement (CETA) with the European Union would not be a big economic blow, since estimates suggested that even the long-term boost to... 27th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Commodity producers and China drive EM recovery EM GDP is currently growing at its fastest pace in 18 months, with the recovery being driven mainly bystronger growth in commodity producers as well as an upturn in China. According to our GDP tracker... 26th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Setbacks in EU-Canada trade deal bode ill for EU growth The latest setbacks in ratifying an EU-Canada trade deal have larger direct economic implications for Canada than for the EU. But the political deadlock bodes ill for future EU trade agreements which... 26th October 2016 · 1 min read