UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Bumpy ride for sterling The pound has suffered another bumpy ride this week, as concerns about the economic impact of a “hard Brexit” have lingered. That said, some of the positive impacts of the lower exchange rate were... 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports hit new records in 2016 China’s commodity import volumes remained high in December, corroborating data showing a pick-up in activity in the final months of 2016. However, the strength of imports cannot be attributed solely... 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Formation of new Icelandic Government opens door for further rate cuts In the land of fire and ice, currency movements in 2016 resembled an erupting volcano rather than a creeping glacier. The appreciating króna put downward pressure on inflation, prompting the Central... 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Dec.) A strong end to the year for global manufacturing failed to prevent a decline in Chinese trade growth last month. 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Steady growth ahead Most countries in Emerging Asia should continue to grow at a decent pace over the next couple of years as loose monetary policy helps support demand. The key exception is China, where growth looks set... 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Inflation close to bottoming out Inflation fell to fresh lows at the end of 2016, with the Bank of Japan’s favourite measure of underlying inflation turning negative in the Tokyo region on our estimates. What’s more, there are few... 12th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production, Construction & Trade (Nov.) The latest deluge of economic data as part of the ONS’ new “Theme Days” added to other evidence suggesting that the economy maintained a decent amount of momentum in the fourth quarter, and that... 11th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Still no need to panic about the pound While the latest fall in the pound could potentially push inflation higher than otherwise, it should strengthen the already considerable beneficial effects of a weaker currency too. 10th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & Trade (Nov.) November’s rise in German industrial production suggests that industry had a decent quarter in Q4. And with trade data also painting a positive picture of the economy, it seems likely that GDP growth... 9th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico & US: the ties that bind This note is intended to help clients identify areas where the imposition of protectionist measures by President Trump might hit Mexico hardest. On the trade front, Mexico is especially reliant on... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Are even we too pessimistic on growth? While we have been considerably more upbeat than other forecasters about the outlook for the UK economy in 2017, the positive tone of recent indicators suggests that even we might have been a bit too... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Dec.) & Int. Trade (Nov.) The massive 54,000 increase in employment in December continued the barely believable run of job gains over the past few months. The economy added 108,000 jobs in the fourth quarter, the most since... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Dec.) & Int. Trade (Nov.) The more modest 156,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in December suggests that labour market conditions weakened just a fraction in the closing stages of last year. Nevertheless, that is still a... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Who will benefit from rising US interest rates? The recent slump in the yen has lifted the yen-value of foreign assets and associated income streams. We estimate that the government’s net debt has fallen by 11% of GDP since the US election as the... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Nov.) The first trade surplus since March 2014 isn’t quite as good as it looks as it’s due to a surge in the prices of exports rather than the volume of exports. This means that net exports were probably... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update US “border tax” and the implications for EM currencies The switch to a so-called “border adjustment” system of corporate tax that has been proposed by US House Republicans could in theory lead to a weakening of EM currencies against the dollar, but in... 4th January 2017 · 1 min read
