Latin America Economics Update Mexico & US: the ties that bind This note is intended to help clients identify areas where the imposition of protectionist measures by President Trump might hit Mexico hardest. On the trade front, Mexico is especially reliant on... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Are even we too pessimistic on growth? While we have been considerably more upbeat than other forecasters about the outlook for the UK economy in 2017, the positive tone of recent indicators suggests that even we might have been a bit too... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Dec.) & Int. Trade (Nov.) The massive 54,000 increase in employment in December continued the barely believable run of job gains over the past few months. The economy added 108,000 jobs in the fourth quarter, the most since... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Dec.) & Int. Trade (Nov.) The more modest 156,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in December suggests that labour market conditions weakened just a fraction in the closing stages of last year. Nevertheless, that is still a... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Who will benefit from rising US interest rates? The recent slump in the yen has lifted the yen-value of foreign assets and associated income streams. We estimate that the government’s net debt has fallen by 11% of GDP since the US election as the... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Nov.) The first trade surplus since March 2014 isn’t quite as good as it looks as it’s due to a surge in the prices of exports rather than the volume of exports. This means that net exports were probably... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update US “border tax” and the implications for EM currencies The switch to a so-called “border adjustment” system of corporate tax that has been proposed by US House Republicans could in theory lead to a weakening of EM currencies against the dollar, but in... 4th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics National Accounts & Balance of Payments (Q3) The latest Quarterly National Accounts suggest that the economy grew more quickly after the referendum than previously estimated. Moreover, the latest surveys suggest that the economy will turn in... 23rd December 2016 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor Prospects for world trade still weak The latest data show that world trade fell in October, continuing the renewed slowdown since 2015. Looking ahead, while world trade is unlikely to collapse, it will probably remain sluggish for years... 22nd December 2016 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Reform agenda takes off in 2016 2016 will be remembered as the year that Prime Minister Modi finally began to deliver on promises of much-needed economic reform. However, with a number of state elections due to take place over the... 21st December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Are exporters squandering the drop in the pound? On the face of it, the early evidence suggests that exporters are using the drop in the pound to boost margins as opposed to market share. This poses a risk to our optimistic forecasts for exports... 20th December 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Mixed performance in Q3, but surveys bode well for Q4 Recent national accounts data showed a marked divergence in quarterly economic growth in Q3, with the Swiss economy stagnating while the Icelandic economy expanded by an impressive 4.6% q/q. In the... 20th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports set for modest recovery in 2017 EM exports performed poorly in 2016, but the rate of contraction eased later in the year. We expect that things will get better in 2017, though growth will remain modest. 19th December 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External trade (Nov.) The sharp weakening of the yen has contributed to a rebound in the annual growth rate of trade values. However, since imports are invoiced in foreign currency more often than exports, the trade... 19th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Rising UK trade surplus another risk for the euro-zone The euro-zone’s trade surplus with the UK is likely to fall as a result of sterling’s depreciation. We think that this will reduce euro-zone GDP growth by about 0.1 percentage points per year in 2017... 16th December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Should inflation expectations concern the MPC? The MPC has not surprisingly emphasised the importance of inflation expectations in determining the degree to which it is prepared to tolerate an overshoot of the inflation target. After all, low... 16th December 2016 · 1 min read
