China Economics Update China’s worries over Trump fade China’s relationship with the US has so far been less fraught than had seemed likely immediately after President Trump’s election victory. Tensions are likely to flare up at some point but the most... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Markets’ fears over Le Pen outweigh hopes for Macron Marine Le Pen’s announcement of her radical vision for France, particularly her intentions for an exit from the European Union and the euro, unnerved euro-zone financial markets last week. Her main... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Industrial Production, Construction & Trade (Dec.) Today’s economic activity data added to other evidence suggesting that the economy maintained a significant amount of momentum at the end of 2016 and implies that GDP growth is becoming more balanced. 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Jan.) Headline trade growth jumped in January. Seasonal factors played a large part but underlying demand also appears to have strengthened. 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: What to watch for signs of a sharp slowdown The plunge in Mexican consumer confidence to a record low in January has raised concerns that a much more severe economic slowdown than we currently expect is underway. But it remains to be seen if... 8th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Which countries are most exposed to US protectionism? Germany, Belgium and particularly Ireland are the euro-zone members most exposed to US protectionism, while Portugal and the other peripheral euro-zone economies are the least exposed. 8th February 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Does the US need a strong or weak dollar? We will probably never know whether President Donald Trump really did phone his National Security adviser at 3am to ask whether a strong or weak dollar was good for the economy, but it is a very good... 8th February 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Dec.) The marginal decline in the nominal trade deficit in December was broadly in line with expectations and confirms that net trade was a big drag on fourth-quarter GDP. But that fourth-quarter drag was... 7th February 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Dec.) December’s trade report confirmed that, even with the benefit of a weaker Canadian dollar, export volumes barely grew last year, which is further evidence of the structural competitiveness challenges... 7th February 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX reserves (Jan.) China’s foreign exchange reserves are now worth less than $3trn for the first time since 2011. That said, they remain sufficiently large not to warrant any immediate concerns over the sustainability... 7th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & French Trade (Dec.) December’s drop in German industrial production is unlikely to be a sign of things to come, but it does suggest that the economy entered 2017 on a slightly weaker footing than the surveys have implied... 7th February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Remittance tax probably not Mexico’s biggest problem The public spat between Donald Trump and President Enrique Peña Nieto over who will pay for the proposed border wall has led to some speculation that the US could impose a tax on remittance flows to... 6th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Post-Brexit momentum maintained at the start of 2017 Following a strong end to 2016, the economy appears to have carried a decent amount of momentum over into 2017. Despite a slight fall in the Markit/CIPS all-sector PMI in January, it is still at a... 6th February 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed likely to stand pat until June The statement released after last week’s FOMC meeting suggests that the Fed will remain in wait and see mode until it gets more clarity on the size, composition and timing of the fiscal stimulus being... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly GDP prospects improve, despite trade policy uncertainty Incoming data indicate that the economy has emerged from the oil price shock, with encouraging signs in business confidence pointing to faster economic growth over the next six months. As things stand... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Where do the risks to the MPC’s forecasts lie? Last week’s Inflation Report saw the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) seemingly abandon “Project Fear” in favour of “Project Optimism”. Indeed, the MPC seemed upbeat on growth prospects and relaxed... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
