India Economics Weekly

Election countdown, our new EM risk indicators

We've entered the final few weeks before India's general election kicks off. All the signs point to another win for Prime Minister Modi's BJP but what really matters for the economy is whether the...

22nd March 2024 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Flexible EGP on the rise, Morocco’s cautious central bank

The Egyptian pound has appreciated by 10% against the dollar in the past couple of weeks since its devaluation, providing hope that the CBE is finally following through with its commitment to a more...

21st March 2024 · 6 mins read

Japan Rapid Response

Japan External Trade (Feb. 24)

The trade balance didn’t fall nearly as much as most had anticipated in February and net trade will only provide a small drag on Q1 GDP growth.

20th March 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Focus

EM financial risk – An early warning system

The past few years have sharpened investors’ focus on assessing risks and vulnerabilities across the EM world. We have developed a comprehensive suite of indicators to identify early signs of a...

20th March 2024 · 17 mins read

Climate Economics Update

“New Three” export prices continue to plunge

The latest monthly trade data from China highlight how the huge expansion in local manufacturing capacity is pushing down green technology prices and will only add to western concerns about trade...

20th March 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Mar. 2024)

Capital inflows into EMs have picked up in recent weeks on the back of an improvement in risk appetite. This may set the tone for the rest of the year, particularly once the Fed begins to cut interest...

18th March 2024 · 2 mins read

Asia Economics Update

Would Vietnam win a second trade war?

Donald Trump’s threat to impose a blanket 10% tariff on all US imports would hit Vietnam hard. But provided they were accompanied by a 60% tariff on all imports from China (as Trump has also threated)...

18th March 2024 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Australia’s sensitivity to Chinese demand rising again

Easing trade tensions and the relative resilience of iron ore prices relative to prices of fossil fuels have once again lifted China’s importance as a destination for Australia’s exports over the last...

15th March 2024 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

The good and bad of Egypt’s policy shift, Aramco transfer

Last week’s policy moves in Egypt have raised concerns about a fresh surge in inflation, particularly after the jump recorded in the February CPI data. But while inflation may increase again in March...

14th March 2024 · 6 mins read

Event

EM Drop-In: Where to spot financial risk in emerging markets

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Recent years have sharpened investor focus on identifying risks and vulnerabilities across the EM world as the pandemic, the Ukraine war and the surge in US rates have exposed

Climate Economics Update

“New Three” Chinese exports = must-watch data

Amid increasing concerns in the west over China’s dominance in the production of solar panels, electric vehicles, and lithium-ion batteries – dubbed the “New Three” – China’s exports of green...

14th March 2024 · 0 mins read

Latin America Chart Pack

Latin America Chart Pack (Mar. 2024)

Our Latin America Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Activity in the region slowed to a crawl at the end of last year and, while a recovery will...

13th March 2024 · 1 min read

Global Economics Chart Pack

Global Economics Chart Pack (March 2024)

Our Global Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest data indicate some improvement in industry at the start of this year. But this...

13th March 2024 · 0 mins read

Africa Economics Update

The naira’s march to fair value

The devaluation of the Nigerian naira earlier this year appears to have brought it much closer to fair value, which will help to put the balance of payments on a more stable footing. The key now is...

13th March 2024 · 4 mins read

India Economic Outlook

World-beating growth set to continue

India retained its title as the world’s fastest-growing major economy last year and we expect further strong growth over the coming years. That would put India on course to become the world’s third...

13th March 2024 · 20 mins read