Emerging Markets Economic Outlook

EM growth enters a slower phase

Aggregate EM growth is entering a softer patch, despite the tailwind from the Fed’s easing cycle. Growth concerns will prompt central banks in much of Asia to cut interest rates. But stubborn...

25th September 2024 · 26 mins read

US Economics Update

Port strike won’t rock the boat

The strike at East and Gulf Coast ports is unlikely to trigger major economic disruption. Many retailers have made plans in anticipation of the strike and our sense is that, this close to the election...

25th September 2024 · 3 mins read

Africa Economic Outlook

Recovery to be held back by fiscal constraint

A combination of falling inflation and looser monetary policy should help growth to accelerate across Sub-Saharan Africa from early next year. But tight fiscal policy will constrain the recovery and...

25th September 2024 · 19 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook

RBA has less room to cut rates than the RBNZ

A tight labour market and elevated public demand will keep the RBA from loosening policy before early-2025. Moreover, we expect the forthcoming easing cycle to be short-lived by past standards. By...

25th September 2024 · 20 mins read

US Economic Outlook

Economy to benefit from lower interest rates

With inflation normalising due to improving supply, the Fed is in the fortuitous position of being able to lower interest rates even though economic growth remains solid and the unemployment rate is...

23rd September 2024 · 15 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus

Saudi Vision 2030: where it is going right (and wrong)

Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 reform programme has resulted in major societal and cultural changes, but many of the economic reforms are currently not on track to hit their targets. That is not to say...

23rd September 2024 · 29 mins read

Asia Economic Outlook

Policy easing to gather pace

We are expecting another year of below-trend economic growth in 2025 across Asia, as subdued exports, worsening labour markets and tighter fiscal policy weigh on demand. Inflation is back to target...

23rd September 2024 · 28 mins read

Climate Economics Update

China green exports hit another fresh high

Our proprietary measure of China’s green export volumes continued to rise in August to a new record high. Given that the EU tariffs have so far barely made a dent into China’s electric vehicle exports...

20th September 2024 · 2 mins read

Global Economics Update

Five key themes in world trade

In the months ahead, there are five themes to watch for in the world of trade and shipping, the most immediate of which is the risk of strikes at US East and Gulf coast ports in October. The upshot is...

19th September 2024 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt-PIF investment, monetary policy in MENA

The announcement that Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund will invest $5bn into Egypt’s economy is a further sign that the weaker pound has made Egyptian assets more attractive and will help to put...

19th September 2024 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook

Gulf’s non-oil sectors set for a slowdown

Headline GDP growth in the Gulf economies will strengthen sharply in 2025 as oil output cuts are unwound. But lower oil prices will prompt a turn to fiscal consolidation in most of the Gulf, causing...

19th September 2024 · 20 mins read

India Economic Outlook

Rate cuts on the horizon

The economy is cooling but remains primed to grow by 6-6.5% per year between 2024 and 2026, which would put India on course to become the world’s third-largest economy in the next couple of years...

18th September 2024 · 16 mins read

Emerging Europe Economic Outlook

Inflation and fiscal risks simmering

We have generally revised down our growth forecasts for this year and next. Weakness in the euro-zone will remain a drag on export sectors across Central and Eastern Europe in the coming quarters...

17th September 2024 · 22 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack

Emerging Markets Chart Pack (September 2024)

EM recoveries are beginning to slow and will continue to do so over the coming quarters. Within this there will be regional variation, with Asia the outperformer and Latin America the laggard...

17th September 2024 · 1 min read

Japan Rapid Response

Japan External Trade (August 2024)

Even though the trade balance held up much better than most had anticipated in August, net trade will still provide a large drag on Q3 GDP growth.

18th September 2024 · 1 min read