Europe Economics Update Rising UK trade surplus another risk for the euro-zone The euro-zone’s trade surplus with the UK is likely to fall as a result of sterling’s depreciation. We think that this will reduce euro-zone GDP growth by about 0.1 percentage points per year in 2017... 16th December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Should inflation expectations concern the MPC? The MPC has not surprisingly emphasised the importance of inflation expectations in determining the degree to which it is prepared to tolerate an overshoot of the inflation target. After all, low... 16th December 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What to expect in 2017 The past year has been a mixed one for Asian economies, with buoyant domestic demand helping to compensate for continued weak export growth. But will next year be any better? In our penultimate Weekly... 16th December 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Boost from net trade to fizzle out next year The recent sharp fall in import volumes is largely a legacy of the slump in the exchange rate in the early stages of Abenomics. We expect imports to rebound next year, so the boost from net trade to... 16th December 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Export rebound continues, but government target too ambitious Trade data for November show that export values continued to recover last month. Looking ahead, export growth should remain positive, but the government’s target of nearly doubling export values from... 16th December 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update What to expect in 2017 and beyond Donald Trump’s surprise win in the Presidential election has introduced uncertainty across a number of policy dimensions, but the likelihood of a significant fiscal stimulus next year points to a pick... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Malaysia moves to stabilise the ringgit The Malaysian central bank (BNM) has introduced a range of measures to stabilise the ringgit, which has been the region’s worst performing currency over the past month. The most significant step it... 14th December 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Balance of payments position remains secure The narrowing in India’s current account deficit over a four-quarter sum in Q3, along with another rise in net FDI inflows, leaves the economy looking well-placed to cope in the event of a renewed... 14th December 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack The tide for the yen has turned The Bank of Japan’s favourite gauge of underlying price pressures remains just a touch above zero. However, spare capacity is narrowing and growth in part-time pay has started to pick up. What’s more... 12th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Nov.) Our Tracker shows that total capital outflows from the emerging world reached a ten-month high of $75bn last month. This was driven mainly by an acceleration in outflows from China, but it seems that... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly No end in sight for ECB monetary support While the ECB opted to extend its Asset Purchase Programme (APP) at a slower monthly pace than anticipated, there is no immediate end in sight in terms of its duration. Indeed, we think that the ECB... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly What explains the manufacturing sector’s decline? Despite claims that China is to blame for the five million manufacturing jobs lost since 2001, the evidence suggests that rapid productivity gains, driven by rising automation, have also played a... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (Oct.) The UK’s trade deficit narrowed sharply in October, following a large upward revision to the Q3 deficit. And the drop in the pound should support net trade’s contribution to GDP growth in the coming... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response French Industrial Production & German Trade (Oct.) October’s French industrial production and German trade data, combined with soft data released earlier in the week, suggest that the euro-zone’s largest economies made a slower start to the fourth... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response S. Africa Current Account (Q3) South Africa’s current account position deteriorated again in Q3. The wide deficit is the key reason why we expect that the rand will remain under pressure in 2017. 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus What to expect in 2017 China defied the bears this year with an economic turnaround that took many by surprise. But the current strength cannot be sustained and the risk now is that many don’t appreciate how soon growth... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read