Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Catch-up wage growth is a pipe dream The idea that Australian employees could enjoy a period of “catch-up” wage growth is a pipe dream. It doesn’t stack up in theory and it doesn’t stack up in practice. It’s far more likely that cyclical... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: about that trade surplus with the US… Changes to US trade statistics that are apparently being considered by the Trump administration would double Mexico’s trade surplus with the US as reported by the US Census Bureau, from $60bn to... 23rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack A bad month for Indonesia A number of developments over the past month have cast a shadow over Indonesia’s prospects. The first was the publication of GDP figures for the final quarter of last year which showed a slowdown in... 23rd February 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update New trade balance calculation would make little sense The changes to the official trade statistics apparently being considered by the Trump administration may bolster the case for renegotiating trade deals, but they would give a distorted picture of... 22nd February 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Jan.) Recent data provide further evidence that China’s moves to tighten capital controls are having an effect. According to our detailed estimates, outflows last month were the smallest since August... 22nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Overshoot in business confidence The notable improvement in a number of leading activity indicators in the past month or so is consistent with a sizeable pick-up in GDP growth in Australia. But we remain cautious about the prospects... 22nd February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Feb.) February’s CBI Industrial Trends Survey added to the evidence that the manufacturing sector is getting back onto its feet. This should help prevent GDP growth from losing too much momentum in the... 20th February 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External trade (Jan.) The tailwind from rising export prices was offset by a drop in export volumes in January. By contrast, import volumes recorded the strongest increase since mid-2014. 20th February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Mexico & NAFTA: what’s at stake? Mexico has more to lose than the US from the renegotiation of NAFTA, but there are a number of changes that could be made with little economic impact and the government does have some bargaining power... 17th February 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Can Korea’s exports offset domestic demand weakness? The sharp turnaround in Korea’s headline export growth in recent months owes more to a rebound in commodity price inflation than a recovery in underlying demand. Looking ahead, a combination of... 17th February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jan.) Aggregate Emerging Market net capital outflows slowed sharply in January. This appears to be partially due to large – but temporary – inflows into the Czech Republic. But it also reflected the... 16th February 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Export rebound continues Trade data for January show that export values continued to recover last month. Looking ahead, export growth should remain positive, but the government’s long-term target still looks out of reach... 16th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Dec.) The euro-zone’s goods trade surplus widened somewhat in December, and, as a result, was virtually unchanged over Q4 as a whole. Looking ahead, while surveys suggest that export growth may pick up from... 15th February 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: what to make of the pound’s recent rally? Weaker import demand and a pick-up in foreign investment have pushed the Egyptian pound up by 15% against the US dollar in the past couple of weeks, and we think the rally may have a little further to... 14th February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: promising noises on trade, but structural hurdles persist While Brazil’s government is talking a good game on trade, the reality remains that the economy is among the most closed in the world. This is due in large part to structural problems that previous... 13th February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Strong start to the year for big EM exporters EM exports appear to have made a good start to the year, with shipments from China, Brazil and Korea all growing strongly in dollar terms in January. The recent improvement in EM exports hasn’t just... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read