UK Economics Weekly Have we underestimated sterling’s inflation impact? CPI inflation surprised on the upside again last week, largely due to a few components that tend to be more responsive to exchange rate movements. This begs the question of whether we (and many others... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update BoP data suggest low external vulnerabilities While there was a slight widening in India’s current account deficit in Q4, the more important point is that the external shortfall remains small. Given also that FDI inflows remain strong, the... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia won’t stay ahead for long The rebound in GDP growth in Australia in the fourth quarter and the easing in New Zealand appear to imply that the neighbouring nations are experiencing a change of fortunes. But we doubt this is a... 23rd March 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Demonetisation impact wearing off The latest economic data for India suggest that the most acute impact from the government’s demonetisation measures has now passed. Both the manufacturing and services PMI readings for February came... 23rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External trade (Feb.) A large jump in exports in February resulted in the highest trade surplus since 2010. The upshot is that net trade should have continued to support growth this quarter. 22nd March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Will EMs pick up the free-trade mantle? There is growing speculation that the largest EMs might step up to fill the void left by the US in the event of a protectionist shift under President Trump. However, there are good reasons why intra... 21st March 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack South Korea elections: key names to watch Political campaigning in South Korea ahead of presidential elections due on 9th May is now well underway. Given the extent of public anger against ousted former president Park Geun-hye and her ruling... 21st March 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Will the Korea-US free-trade agreement survive Trump? The risk that the US may seek to renegotiate or even pull out from the Korea-US free trade agreement (KORUS) is a big concern for Korean exporters. However, there are reasons to think the US may... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Feb.) According to our latest detailed estimates, China witnessed a net inflow of capital last month for the first time in almost three years. Tighter capital controls and seasonal factors helped drive this... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Trade position continues to improve India’s monthly trade deficit narrowed to a six-month low in February. Looking ahead, with imports of key commodities such as gold and oil likely to stay subdued by past standards, the trade deficit... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update G20 business as usual despite Trump? The most noteworthy thing about this weekend’s gathering of finance ministers and central bank governors in Baden-Baden may be that it turns out to be as uneventful as previous G20 meetings. If so... 15th March 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Wage growth picking up Japan’s unemployment rate is the lowest it has been since the mid-1990s and the job-to-applicant ratio is approaching its bubble year peak. Regular wages are rising at the fastest pace in years, and... 14th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Current Account (Jan.) A higher energy import bill caused Turkey’s current account deficit to widen even further in January, taking it to around 4.2% of GDP. As a result, the lira remains one of the most vulnerable EM... 13th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export rebound not just a commodity price story EM export growth continued its strong start to the year buoyed in equal parts by the recovery in commodity prices after their precipitous falls a year previously and an improvement in underlying... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production, Construction & Trade (Jan.) Today’s deluge of economic data as part of the ONS’ “Theme Days” suggest that the pound’s post-referendum slide is helping growth to become more balanced. 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update China’s retaliation to THAAD adds to economic risks in Korea Chinese retaliation over South Korea’s plans to deploy a US anti-missile defence system (THAAD) is an added concern for Korea’s already struggling economy. While the overall impact could be quite... 9th March 2017 · 1 min read
