UK Economics Update What does Macron’s victory mean for the UK? Emmanual Macron’s victory in Sunday’s French presidential election is potentially good news for the UK economy and might also provide the best background for the Brexit negotiations. 10th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export growth reaching its peak EM export growth reached a 5-year high in March, rounding off a strong quarter. We expect this is probably the peak but a healthy global environment means that the EM export recovery is likely to slow... 9th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & Trade (Mar.) Despite declining, German industrial production remained at a high level in March and grew strongly in Q1 overall. Other German hard data have been weaker, but surveys imply that GDP growth was strong... 9th May 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade & FX Reserves (Apr.) Chinese trade is still growing rapidly but shipments are beginning to slow, with cooling domestic demand weighing on imports. Meanwhile, capital outflows are edging up again despite the recent rise in... 8th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly 1992 or 2008? Updated Recent news on the economy might suggest that the effects of the pound’s post-referendum depreciation will be closer to those seen after the pound’s fall in 2008 – which raised inflation and squeezed... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Mar.) Although export volumes grew by 2.3% m/m in March, that followed a big decline the month before, with exports increasing only trivially in the first quarter as a whole. This poor export performance... 4th May 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Mar.) The international trade surplus is well past its peak and will probably continue to fall in the coming months. What’s more, the nominal surplus in the first quarter won’t prevent net exports from... 4th May 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Softwood lumber dispute isn’t start of potential trade war The decision by the US Commerce Department to impose preliminary import duties of close to 20% on Canadian softwood lumber isn’t a big surprise to domestic producers, nor will it seriously threaten... 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Real wages squeezed by rising price of essentials The rise in inflation in Australia in the first quarter was good news as it suggests the period of very low inflation is now over. But it is also bad news as it means prices are now rising faster than... 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Construction likely to slow again as property sales cool After falling for years, construction growth in China has stabilised since the start of 2016, supported by a rise in home sales. Dire warnings of developers collapsing have not materialised. But it is... 27th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Is the US about to withdraw from NAFTA? Only a few weeks after the Treasury passed up the chance to label China a currency manipulator, a new report from Politico suggests that the White House is close to finalising an Executive Order on... 26th April 2017 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor World trade momentum carries over into Q2 Although the CPB’s latest figures suggest that world trade volumes fell in February, these estimates are often subject to hefty revisions, and the three-month average growth rate remains quite... 25th April 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Sensex rises to record highs Indian equities have rallied over the past few months, with the benchmark Sensex stock index hitting an all-time high in early April. This reflects in part a broader pick-up across most major EM... 25th April 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand Activity Proxy (Feb.) Our New Zealand Activity Proxy (NZAP) indicates that the slowdown in GDP growth at the end of last year was temporary. In fact, February’s NZAP is consistent with a pick-up in GDP growth, from 0.4% q... 24th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor A solid first quarter for EM exports EM export growth softened a little in February but we think this was due in large part to one-offs, including the timing of the Chinese New Year and the effects of 2016’s leap year dropping out of the... 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Philippines – current account deficit no cause for alarm A sharp fall in the Philippines’ current account surplus is fueling fears that the economy is overheating. We think such fears are overdone. 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
