India Economics Update Can the export recovery continue? The recovery in India’s exports over the past few months is due in large part (and somewhat surprisingly) to a rise in global oil prices as well as the strength of the rupee, which has boosted... 31st May 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish GDP (Q1), Retail Sales (Apr) & Swiss KOF (May) The slowdown in Swedish quarterly GDP growth in Q1 masked a strong rise in domestic demand. And with April’s pick-up in retail sales boding well for growth in Q2, underlying inflation should continue... 30th May 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Tailwind from net exports about to slow Strong growth in Japan’s main export markets has provided a fillip to export volumes in recent quarters. However, foreign demand growth is likely to fade in coming months and the unusual recent... 26th May 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly A year of two halves The latest evidence suggests that the Australian economy entered a soft patch in the first half of the year, with the quarterly rate of GDP growth perhaps averaging only 0.3%. As some of this weakness... 26th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Spanish GDP Breakdown (Q1) The second release of Spanish GDP confirmed that quarterly growth edged up in Q1 despite a slowdown in consumer spending. While we expect growth to slow in the coming quarters, Spain is still set to... 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update The shifting shape of economic growth The economy appears to be in a new phase where mining investment is no longer as big a drag on growth but net exports, consumption and dwellings investment are providing less support. The risk is that... 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor A strong end to a strong quarter for world trade The CPB’s latest figures confirm what other indicators had suggested – that world trade experienced fairly rapid growth in Q1. And the signs are that this momentum has spilled over into Q2, albeit at... 24th May 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Apr.) After a sharp decline at the start of the year, net capital outflows have crept up again recently. Unless we witness another misstep on exchange rate policy though, outflow pressure should remain... 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Another obstacle cleared on road to GST The consensus reached between India’s national and state governments on how different products will be dealt with under the Goods and Services Tax (GST) marks another important step towards its... 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand Activity Proxy (Mar.) The further pick-up in our New Zealand Activity Proxy in March means it is now consistent with the 0.4% q/q increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter being followed by a much more respectable rise of... 22nd May 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External trade (Apr.) The trade surplus fell to a fresh low in April which suggests that net trade should have provided less support to economic activity in the second quarter. But the bigger picture is that external... 22nd May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1), Trade (Mar.) & German ZEW (May) The second estimate of euro-zone Q1 GDP confirmed that the recovery maintained a decent pace, and growth is set to pick up further. But with inflation pressures subdued, we doubt that the ECB will... 16th May 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Widening trade deficit not a cause for concern India’s monthly trade deficit widened to its highest level in over two years in April. But this was in large part due to temporary factors. Looking ahead, with imports of key commodities such as gold... 16th May 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack The return of Goldilocks Japan’s economy probably recorded the fifth straight quarter of growth in Q1, the longest streak since 2005. The unemployment rate is at multi-year lows and corporate profit margins at record highs... 15th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production, Construction & Trade (Mar.) Today’s activity data re-affirmed that the economy lost some momentum in Q1 but showed some signs that GDP growth is becoming slightly better balanced. 11th May 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Further FDI reform will prove more difficult Recent measures to further ease restrictions on foreign direct investment into India should help to build on one of the main policy successes of the Modi government so far. But the government may now... 11th May 2017 · 1 min read
