Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Apr.) The euro-zone’s goods trade surplus narrowed a touch in April, but the outlook for exports is encouraging. We think that net trade will provide a small boost to GDP growth in 2017. 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Asia well placed to withstand Fed interest rate hikes The US Fed looks almost certain to raise interest rates at its meeting later today. For most of Emerging Asia, higher rates in the US do not pose a major threat, even if the US Fed ends up hiking... 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Consumer revival underway The recovery in Japan’s economy since early last year has mostly been driven by a surge in exports, but Japanese consumers also seem to be joining the party. Consumer spending is on track for another... 13th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Peak has passed for EM export growth Following a five-year high in March, EM export growth lost a little steam going into the second quarter. We expect growth will gradually slow over the coming months. 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response French Industrial Production & German Trade (Apr.) April’s sharp fall in French industrial production was disappointing in the wake of yesterday’s poor trade data and dims hopes for a strong pick-up in GDP growth in Q2. But German data continue to be... 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production, Construction & Trade (Apr.) Although all eyes this morning have been on the General Election result, a flurry of UK activity data has also been released, which has cast some doubt on the likely strength of the bounce-back in... 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & French Trade (Apr.) April’s rise in German production is an encouraging sign that the industrial upturn is back on track, and surveys point to a sharp acceleration to come. 8th June 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (May) The latest Chinese trade data beat expectations. Imports, in particular, held up surprisingly well. But given the approaching headwinds to the economy from policy tightening, we doubt this strength... 8th June 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Apr.) The plunge in the international trade surplus to a six-month low of $0.6bn in April won’t last long as it was almost entirely due to the fall in coal exports caused by Cyclone Debbie, most of which... 8th June 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q1 Revised) & Current Account (Apr.) Revised data show that GDP growth was weaker last quarter than initially reported. However, the early indications for the current quarter are positive and we reiterate our 2017 GDP forecast of +1.5%. 8th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Rising orders bode well for euro-zone exports Net trade probably contributed little to euro-zone GDP growth in Q1, but the outlook for exports is encouraging. The monthly goods export and import values data show a decline in the goods trade... 7th June 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX reserves (May) The latest rise in China’s foreign exchange reserves suggests that the People’s Bank (PBOC) became net buyer of FX for the first time in well over a year last month. This reflects an easing of capital... 7th June 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Spillovers from Venezuela’s crisis limited to smaller economies The deepening crisis in Venezuela could have significant spillovers to some Central American and Caribbean countries such as Nicaragua and Cuba. But the impact on larger countries in the region... 6th June 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Apr.) The moderate 0.8% m/m increase in export volumes in April, following the stronger gain in the month before, provides further evidence that exporters are finally tapping into the recent pick-up in... 2nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Don’t panic about housing…at least not yet Most of the recent gloomy headlines on Australia’s housing market are simply because people are mistaking the normal soft patch after the Easter school holidays for something more worrying. When you... 2nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update What’s behind the turnaround in Finland? The recent pick-up in growth in Finland has been broad-based, and Government reforms have improved the medium-term outlook. We expect GDP growth to beat the consensus forecast this year. 1st June 2017 · 1 min read
