India Economics Update Trade position remains comfortable India’s trade deficit retreated in June from a 30-month high in May. With imports of key commodities such as oil and gold likely to stay in check, the overall trade deficit should remain at a... 17th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export growth to slow, but not collapse EM export growth ticked up in May, but the big picture is that the sharp acceleration caused by the rebound in global commodity prices over the past year or so is now behind us. We don’t expect EM... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Informal economies pose statistical challenges A new IMF paper highlights the large role the informal sector plays in African economies. It casts further doubt on official growth figures, and suggests that debt-to-GDP figures are painting a... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (May) The widening of the euro-zone’s trade surplus in May adds to signs that GDP growth may have accelerated in the second quarter. And in contrast to the situation last year, we expect net trade to boost... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly KORUS renegotiation could benefit Korea The announcement earlier in the week from the US government that it is formally seeking to renegotiate the Korea-US free trade pact (KORUS) is not a big threat to the Korean economy. The negotiations... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Jun.) Chinese trade ended Q2 on a positive note but headwinds remain. In particular, while the slowdown in import growth appears to have eased recently, policy tightening means that the current resilience... 13th July 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Are we witnessing the end of the GCC? A threat by regional powers to expel Qatar from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) has sparked fears that the group could be disbanded. A complete breakup of the GCC seems highly unlikely but, even if... 12th July 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is Germany’s surplus a global problem? Germany’s current account surplus has been quite stable in recent years and has not, therefore, been a major drag on global demand. That said, in the unlikely event that it significantly eases up on... 11th July 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Yen to weaken further US 10-year government bond yields have climbed to a two-month high in recent days and we expect them to rise further in coming months. By contrast, the Bank of Japan has underlined its determination... 11th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production, Construction & Trade (May) Today’s flurry of activity data casts some doubt on the likely strength of the bounce-back in GDP growth in Q2 and adds to the likelihood that rates will stay on hold at the next MPC meeting in August... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How important is the EU-Japan trade deal? The EU-Japan trade deal is unlikely to have a major impact on euro-zone GDP growth. In the context of US President Trump’s protectionist leanings and the UK’s impending exit from the EU, the deal is a... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Trump unifying the G20 in favour of free trade Few observers will be expecting any policy breakthroughs at the G20 leaders’ summit in Hamburg this weekend, given the US administration’s scepticism about multilateral cooperation. But for now it... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Int. Trade (May) & ISM Non-Manufacturing (Jun.) Despite the small narrowing of the trade deficit, from $47.6bn in April to $46.5bn in May, net trade still looks to have been a small drag on GDP growth in the second quarter. Meanwhile, the non... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (May) Despite a big one-time jump in gold exports, the 2.0% m/m increase in export volumes in May, following fairly strong upward revised gains in the previous two months, builds an even stronger case than... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack GDP growth still looks to have accelerated in Q2 The incoming economic data appeared to take a bit of a turn for the worse over the past month, with the headline balances of all three Markit/CIPS PMIs falling in June. What’s more, consumer... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (May) The trade surplus bounced back in May as coal exports returned to more normal levels following a sharp fall in April as a result of disruptions caused by Cyclone Debbie. As such, at this stage it... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
