China Economics Weekly PBOC resists CNY appreciation, EU votes on EV tariffs In a marked shift following a decade of one-sided intervention, the PBOC is now leaning heavily on its daily fixing rate to limit the renminbi's appreciation. We think this is an attempt to maintain... 4th October 2024 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Oil and current account risks, RBI preview If oil prices were to spike considerably higher as a result of the escalating conflict in the Middle East it would expose an age-old vulnerability in India's external position. But we think the risks... 4th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Is Nigeria benefitting from a weaker naira? The Nigerian naira has fallen by more than 70% against the dollar since President Tinubu came to office, which has contributed to a surge in inflation that has weighed on economic growth. There are... 3rd October 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Trump tariffs may not be so bad for the UK One way the US election could influence the UK economy would be if Donald Trump won and delivered on his pledge to put a 10% tariff on UK exports being sent to the US. We suspect the impact on UK... 2nd October 2024 · 7 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Sep. 24) The pivot toward stimulus reduces near-term risks and should provide some much-needed support to an economy struggling with a softening labour market and a deep property downturn. But a rebound in... 1st October 2024 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asia: key client questions answered We recently held a series of Asia-focussed roundtable discussions with clients in London, covering an array of topics including the impact of Fed easing, the US election, global fracturing and China’s... 1st October 2024 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Sep. '24) Our Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack has been updated to reflect the latest data and developments in the region. Headline GDP growth in the Gulf economies will strengthen in 2025 as oil output... 30th September 2024 · 1 min read
Climate Economics Monthly Draghi on green policies; UK farewell to coal power Mario Draghi’s report on EU competitiveness, published this month, provided food for thought on the EU’s decarbonisation strategy. Meanwhile, with the imminent closure of the Ratcliffe-on-Soar coal... 30th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Nasrallah and the next phase of war in the Middle East The strike by Israel in Lebanon that killed Hezbollah’s leader represents a major escalation of hostilities in the Middle East and all eyes are now on the next actions by Israel and Iran. On its own... 30th September 2024 · 7 mins read
China Economic Outlook Pivot to stimulus lowers immediate risks A pivot towards fiscal and monetary stimulus should support China’s growth in the near-term. But the economy continues to be propped up by investment, still elevated levels of construction, and the... 27th September 2024 · 16 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico in Trump’s firing line, Colombia’s budget drama Donald Trump's threats this week to impose tariffs on imports of cars and agricultural equipment from Mexico highlight how big a risk his return to the White House would pose to Mexico’s free trade... 27th September 2024 · 7 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Sep. 2024) Falling inflation and looser monetary policy will help GDP growth to accelerate across Sub-Saharan Africa from early next year. But the external environment will provide mixed fortunes, as falling... 27th September 2024 · 0 mins read
India Economics Weekly Make in India: 10 years on Though there have been pockets of success, PM Modi's flagship "Make in India" policy initiative - launched 10 years ago this week - has done little to improve the global competitiveness of India's... 27th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Sep. 2024) Capital inflows into EMs have rebounded over recent weeks amid the start of the Fed’s easing cycle. Looking ahead, we expect EM inflows to hold up well as global monetary conditions ease further. In... 26th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Climate Economics Update Notes from LSE Environment Week Ahead of COP29 in November, discussions have been taking place at events in London and New York this week on all things climate. We attended the LSE’s Environment Week to hear the thoughts of... 26th September 2024 · 3 mins read
