India Economics Update Trade deficit to remain in check India’s monthly trade deficit narrowed in July, and a number of factors should ensure that it remains in check over the coming months. This should keep India’s financial markets relatively secure in... 15th August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export growth nudges down in Q2 Emerging market (EM) export growth slowed a touch in Q2 and the early signs are that it weakened a little further at the start of the current quarter. However, the slowdown is very gradual – EM... 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Inflation genie remains in its bottle Japan’s economy probably recorded the sixth quarter of uninterrupted GDP growth in Q2 and the outlook for the third quarter is positive. In fact, the economy remains on track to enjoy the longest... 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update The renegotiation of Nafta: a primer Talks to renegotiate Nafta are set to begin on 16th August and look increasingly unlikely to result in major changes that would disrupt Mexico-US trade. Even so, there are still a number of potential... 10th August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production, Construction & Trade (Jun.) Today’s deluge of data from the ONS was a bit of a mixed bag. While the manufacturing sector is still underperforming the surveys, and construction output was weaker than expected, net trade looks to... 10th August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will exports and investment pick up the baton? While the fall in the pound hasn’t yet boosted net trade, there are signs that the external sector will soon start making positive contributions to GDP growth. The depreciation should also support... 8th August 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & French Trade (Jun.) Although German and French exporters struggled in June, the outlook for trade in both countries remains fairly bright amid strong growth in global demand and, despite its recent appreciation, the... 8th August 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Jul.) Chinese trade softened at the start of Q3, with a slowdown in commodity imports suggesting that policy tightening may be weighing on investment spending. 8th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jul.) & International Trade (Jun.) The 209,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in July, together with the drop back in the unemployment rate to a joint 16-year low, suggests the Fed will still need to raise rates again this year, even if... 4th August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is an early lift-off from the MPC now off the cards? The surprisingly-dovish reaction of sterling to the Bank of England’s August Inflation Report has led some commentators to conclude that the prospect of an interest rate hike this year is now dead and... 4th August 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Jun.) The fall in the trade surplus from a record high of $4.6bn in December to just $0.9bn in June is not a disaster as a lot of it is due to lower prices rather than lower export volumes. But the recent... 3rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What would an escalation of US sanctions mean for Venezuela? The decision by the US Treasury to sanction Venezuelan president Nicholas Maduro was on the more benign end of the spectrum of options reportedly under consideration and is unlikely to have much... 2nd August 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus ASEAN: still searching for purpose at 50 As ASEAN approaches its 50th anniversary, we see little prospect of it transforming itself into the kind of single market and production base which its supporters hope will one day enable it to rival... 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Jobs growth switches from soft to soaring After a soft patch at the beginning of this year, jobs growth has soared in Australia in recent months. What’s more, of the net new 154,000 jobs that have been created since March all of them have... 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Transitional agreement increasingly likely The view on both sides of the channel seems to be that agreeing the terms of the UK’s withdrawal will take longer than initially hoped. As a result, a transitional deal allowing freedom of movement... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Election won’t solve Malaysia’s institutional problems There is growing speculation that Malaysia’s prime minister, Najib Razak, will take advantage of the recent strength of the economy by calling an early general election. The weak state of the... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
