Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales & International Trade (Jul.) The stagnation in retail sales and the fall in the international trade surplus in July suggest that GDP growth in the third quarter will be weaker than the second-quarter’s 0.8%. With households’... 7th September 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Jul.) Despite the recent improvement in global trade activity, merchandise export volumes fell for the second consecutive month in July, hinting at a slower pace of overall economic growth in the third... 6th September 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Philippines: No need to worry about the weak peso Subdued inflation and a relatively low level of foreign currency debt mean the weakness of the Philippine peso, which has recently been hitting multi-year lows against the US dollar, is not a major... 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Brazil’s political crisis puts back pension reform The past month has brought some signs that the continuing political crisis in Brazil is starting to weigh on the more ambitious elements of the government’s reform programme. While President Temer’s... 30th August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Time to give up on a boost from trade? Almost two years on from the start of sterling’s Brexit-related slide, the effects on net trade have been disappointing. Since the pound’s fall, net trade has actually detracted from growth as opposed... 25th August 2017 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor Trade momentum still strong, despite Trump The latest esimates of world trade volumes reinforce the impression that global trade has coninued to expand rapidly in recent months. What’s more, the most timely indicators of freight traffic and... 25th August 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Qatar crisis reaches an impasse The diplomatic crisis between Qatar and regional powers seems to be in deadlock. Saudi Arabia and its allies revised their demands in July to something that appeared to be more palatable for Doha, but... 24th August 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: Politics grabs headlines as key economies strengthen Attention this month focused on unfolding political dramas in Africa’s key economies. The president of South Africa narrowly saw off another no-confidence vote, Kenya’s president was re-elected in a... 24th August 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Recovery to strengthen over coming year After a torrid couple of years, the economies of Latin America have turned a corner and we expect growth to strengthen over the rest of 2017 and into 2018. Inflation has fallen in most countries and... 23rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Will other central banks follow Bank Indonesia? Despite the current subdued rates of inflation across most of Emerging Asia, we don’t expect many of the region’s central banks to copy Bank Indonesia, which yesterday surprised markets by cutting... 23rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Most EM central banks in easing mode Despite the focus in advanced economies on the timing of monetary policy tightening, the majority of EMs remain in easing mode. More EM central banks cut their policy interest rates than raised them... 22nd August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack A strong Q2, but regional growth nearing a peak The raft of second quarter GDP data released over the past few weeks showed that growth in Emerging Europe as a whole accelerated to around 3.7% y/y, its fastest pace since 2011. The pickup in growth... 22nd August 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP & Current Account (Q2) The pick-up in Chilean GDP growth in Q2 was mainly due to a rebound in mining production following a strike, and there are continued signs of weakness elsewhere in the economy. This adds to the case... 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Malaysia GDP (Q2) Figures released today show that GDP growth in Malyasia unexpectedly accelerated in Q2. However, we expect growth to ease from around 5.5% this year to 4.5% in 2018 as domestic problems continue to... 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External trade (Jul.) The recent acceleration in export values reflects a surge in export prices rather than stronger volumes. Nonetheless, export volumes will probably outpace import volumes this year so net exports will... 17th August 2017 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Strong bank earnings conceal gloomy outlook Official data published on Monday show that commercial banks’ non-performing loan (NPL) ratio held steady at 1.74% in Q2 and that their net profits grew almost 12% y/y, the fastest pace since 2014... 16th August 2017 · 1 min read
