Emerging Europe Chart Pack Early signs of a Q3 pick-up The latest data suggest that, following a strong Q2, growth in Emerging Europe as a whole picked up further in Q3. Activity figures from Poland improved in July and August and the early signs are that... 20th September 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Gold imports likely to ease The strength of gold imports in recent months is the result of temporary issues related to the new GST rather than buoyant underlying demand. As these issues get resolved, we expect gold imports to... 20th September 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Aug.) Export volumes rose the most since 2010 in August which suggests that net trade should have started to support growth in the third quarter. 20th September 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Widening current account deficit no major concern While there was a widening in India’s current account deficit in Q2, the more important point is that the external shortfall remains small. Given also that FDI inflows remain strong, the economy looks... 19th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Labour Costs (Q2) & Trade (Jul.) Today’s euro-zone labour costs data reinforce our view that the ECB will set out in October its plans to taper its asset purchases to zero in the first nine months of 2018. Meanwhile, July’s fall in... 15th September 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Current Account (Q2) South Africa’s current account deficit was wider than expected in Q2, at 2.4% of GDP, but the big picture is that it has narrowed significantly over the past 18 months. The slightly wider shortfall is... 14th September 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Taper without the tantrum While the Bank of Japan didn’t reduce the pace of its bond purchases any further in August, they are much lower now than they were when Yield Curve Control was launched. Nonetheless, bond yields have... 14th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export slowdown to be very gradual Having slowed in Q2, emerging market (EM) export growth ticked up a little at the start of Q3. However, this is likely to be temporary and EM export growth is set to soften over the remainder of the... 12th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Subdued inflation outlook to keep ECB cautious The ECB’s new forecasts show that it expects inflation of just 1.2% next year and 1.5% in 2018. As the economy is performing well and core inflation has picked up recently, the Bank should still feel... 8th September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production, Construction & Trade (Jul.) Today’s flurry of activity data suggests that external-facing sectors are still providing little offset to the consumer slowdown. But there are some signs that net trade could provide more support in... 8th September 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Will Asian exports continue to grow strongly? Exports from Emerging Asia have rebounded strongly over the past year. Despite the protectionist threat from the US, exports should continue to expand at a decent pace. This in turn, should provide an... 8th September 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Aug.) Export growth slowed by more than anticipated last month. Unfavourable base effects appear largely to blame. Nonetheless, outbound shipments remain softer than in Q2. Inbound shipments have held up... 8th September 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q2 Revised) & Current Account (Jul.) Revised data show that GDP growth last quarter wasn’t quite as strong as initially reported, and the early indications point to a slowdown in Q3. But the bigger picture is that the economy is... 8th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: Domestic demand in the driving seat Recently-released GDP breakdowns for the economies of Central and Eastern Europe showed that strengthening consumer spending and investment drove the pick-up in aggregate economic growth to a nine... 7th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & French Trade (Jul.) July’s weak German industrial production and French trade data add to signs that euro-zone GDP growth will slow in Q3. But we expect the slowdown to be modest, so while the ECB is unlikely to announce... 7th September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales & International Trade (Jul.) The stagnation in retail sales and the fall in the international trade surplus in July suggest that GDP growth in the third quarter will be weaker than the second-quarter’s 0.8%. With households’... 7th September 2017 · 1 min read
