China Data Response Trade (Oct.) A shift in the timing of the Mid-Autumn Festival explains much of the decline in headline trade growth in October. But even after accounting for seasonal factors, trade volumes have edged down... 8th November 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Oct.) & Trade (Sep.) The solid 35,300 increase in employment in October, driven by further gains in full-time work, is an encouraging sign for income and spending in the fourth quarter. Although the unemployment rate... 3rd November 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Oct.) & Trade (Sep.) The smaller than expected 261,000 gain in non-farm payroll employment in October, which was below the 310,000 consensus forecast, isn’t as disappointing as it looks when the cumulative 90,000 upward... 3rd November 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Is Japan still being hollowed out? Outward investment from Japan has soared in recent years but this doesn’t seem to have been to the detriment of domestic manufacturing. This isn’t entirely surprising: firms say their main reason for... 3rd November 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Sep.) The rises in the international trade surplus and the number of building approvals in September are both encouraging signs as they highlight the growing importance of services exports and the recent... 2nd November 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Retail sector on the ropes Despite the sustained strengthening in the Australian labour market, retail sales have been unusually weak in recent months. Admittedly, some of this weakness can be explained by weak price pressures... 31st October 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Fading reform hopes roil Brazilian markets Financial markets in Brazil have come under pressure over the past week as a split in President Temer’s ruling coalition has cast doubt over important parts of his reform agenda. The trigger for the... 27th October 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update One chart to watch for Argentine investors The performance of President Macri’s Cambiemos coalition in last weekend’s legislative elections has given a boost to reform hopes, but we can’t escape the feeling that investors are glossing over the... 26th October 2017 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Consumers remain upbeat The latest data on retail sales during China’s National Day “Golden Week” period suggest that consumer demand remains strong. Despite a further increase in overseas tourism during the holiday... 26th October 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Malaysia’s budget won’t be a giveaway bonanza While Malaysia has made good progress in bringing down its budget deficit, there remains limited room for a pre-election giveaway in the 2018 budget, which is due to be announced on 27th October... 26th October 2017 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor World trade strengthens while NAFTA talks sour The latest CPB data suggest that world trade volumes rebounded in August. Taking a range of indicators into account, the big picture is that the global trade recovery is still underway. 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Looking beyond the politics Attention this month has focused on political stories in Kenya, South Africa, and Angola. We will continue to cover these issues in other publications. While economic data released over the past month... 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Tail risks to watch for in EMs Our relatively sanguine view on the outlook for EMs over the next 12-18 months has prompted several clients to ask about risks to our forecasts. While risks – both positive and negative – are by their... 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Qatar: worst of the blockade impact appears to be over Recently-released GDP data confirmed that the blockade on Qatar dealt a blow to its economy in June, but more timely data suggest that the worst has now passed. That said, any recovery is likely to be... 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Fiscal deficit target under pressure The rapid expansion of the central government’s deficit in the early stages of the fiscal year is a regular occurrence, as revenues tend to get ramped up in latter months. Nevertheless, there are... 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) Even though the manufacturing PMI weakened a touch this month, it still points to robust gains in industrial output. However, the survey suggests that price pressures will not strengthen any further... 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
