Japan Economics Weekly Why are regional banks’ capital ratios falling? If the Bank of Japan were to reverse course on monetary loosening in the near future, it would more likely be a response to worries about financial stability than high inflation. The recent... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook MPC to respond to robust growth with more rate hikes Having barely slowed in 2017, contrary to predictions of a substantial negative impact from the Brexit vote, we think that the economy will defy renewed expectations of a slowdown this year. Amid... 13th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Transition period “not a given” This week saw negotiations resume for the first time since the EU Council agreed in December that talks could move on to a possible transition period. However, UK Government objections to some of the... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production, Construction & Trade (Dec.) The deluge of hard data for December provides further evidence that it was the domestic demand and the services sector that drove the pick-up in growth in Q4. However, temporary distortions mean that... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly An oasis of record low interest rates If global equity markets are fearing higher interest rates, as this week’s fall suggest, then Australia and New Zealand offer something of an oasis as both the RBA and RBNZ dropped some heavy hints... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Jan.) Trade growth at the start of 2018 beat expectations by a wide margin. But seasonal volatility means that we won’t get a clear reading on the pace of shipments in and out of China until next month. 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Dec.) The widening in the trade deficit to $3.2bn in December, from $2.7bn, illustrates that Canada is still struggling to benefit from the broad acceleration in global economic growth. The stagnation in... 6th February 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Dec.) Despite the widening in the trade deficit to a nine-year high of $53.1bn in December, from $50.4bn, a continued acceleration in real export growth should ensure that net trade is, at worst, neutral... 6th February 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales & International Trade (Dec.) The fall in retail sales and the deterioration in the international trade balance in December probably won’t ease the current jitters in the financial markets, but the figures aren’t as bad as they... 6th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German current account to remain under scrutiny Recent accusations that Germany has “cooked the books” to downplay its current account surplus are wide of the mark. But the surplus is clearly very large and seems unlikely to narrow in the next... 5th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Latest impact assessments tell us nothing new The revelation that the Department for Exiting the EU (DExEU) has produced an assessment of the likely impact of various Brexit options on the economy has dominated the press this week, but does not... 2nd February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the MPC about to shorten its horizon? We have long-argued that interest rates would rise somewhat faster, and sooner, than markets expecting. Recent comments by Governor Carney offer tentative support to this view and suggest that... 2nd February 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How would China fight a trade war? If the long-running skirmishes between the US and China were to escalate into a trade war, China would try to occupy the moral high ground by portraying itself as a defender of free trade. At the time... 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will Brexit uncertainty finally bite in 2018? A key reason why most forecasters were too gloomy about the UK economy last year was that Brexit-related uncertainty was much less damaging than they had expected. Judging by the gloominess of... 29th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Transition deal negotiations about to kick off The EU will publish its directives for negotiating a transitional arrangement on Monday, signalling the start of the next phase of negotiations. The UK Government seems prepared to accept the EU’s... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What will Thailand do about the “strong” baht? The Thai authorities are becoming increasingly concerned by the strength of the baht, which has been one of the best performing emerging market currencies over the past year. The most likely policy... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
