Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Jan.) The euro-zone’s nominal goods trade surplus narrowed in January, and since then survey indicators of export orders have weakened slightly. Nevertheless, we think that the euro-zone’s trade surplus... 19th March 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Feb.) Seasonal swings related to Chinese New Year pushed the trade balance into the red in February. However, we suspect that these moves will reverse in March. 19th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor US tariff action on China would hit other EMs too Media reports suggest that the US is planning to impose more extensive tariffs on China. This could have a significant knock-on impact for a number of economies in Emerging Asia (Taiwan, Malaysia... 16th March 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly An escalation of trade tariffs poses a big threat You could argue that an escalation of global trade tariffs could actually benefit Australia and New Zealand in the near-term if it caused their currencies to weaken and led China to stimulate its own... 16th March 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Trade deficit stabilises as protectionist clouds gather India is one of many economies facing a more protectionist stance from the US. Its dependence on exports to the US is low though, an inadvertent positive stemming from its failure to develop a world... 15th March 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Emerging Asia not turning its back on free trade Less than a week after the official launch of the 11-country Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) at a ceremony in Chile, other countries are already queuing... 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Expansion has become shakier Revised GDP figures confirmed that the economic recovery continued apace in Q4. However, the more recent monthly activity data suggest that the longest period of uninterrupted expansion since the late... 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Growing threats to Korea’s export sector The near-term outlook for Korea’s export sector remains positive, but US protectionism and Chinese competition pose growing threats to the sector. 12th March 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Rising trade deficit may embolden the protectionists Following the move this week to impose tariffs on imports of steel and aluminium, the widening in the trade deficit to a nine-year high in January is likely to have bolstered President Donald Trump’s... 9th March 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Trump’s tariffs become reality The big news this week was confirmation of President Trump’s tariffs on US steel and aluminium imports on national security grounds. This sent US steel prices even higher, but weighed on prices in... 9th March 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update North Korea, Trump and South Korea’s economy Donald Trump’s decision to accept an invitation to visit North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un, represents an extraordinary turn of events, and comes just a few months after the US president was calling... 9th March 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What would a trade war mean for Asia? Developments in the past couple of weeks point to the risk of trade policy in the US becoming much more protectionist. Given its huge bilateral trade surplus with the US, China is likely to be the... 9th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Trump, trade and the protectionist threat: a primer Fears are growing that recent developments in the US, including the imposition of tariffs on steel and aluminium as well as the apparent ascendancy of economic nationalists within the White House, may... 8th March 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update No need for concern over China’s February imports China’s commodity import volumes fell back sharply in February, but this can probably be explained by the week-long New Year holiday which fell in the middle of the month. The bigger picture is that... 8th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: early signs that strong demand is leaking into imports Q4 GDP breakdowns for the economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) confirmed that last year’s pick-up in regional growth was driven by an improvement in consumer spending and investment. However... 8th March 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Feb.) The surge in export growth last month largely reflects the shifting timing of Chinese New Year. Of greater significance given the current climate of concern over US protectionism, China’s surplus with... 8th March 2018 · 1 min read
