India Chart Pack Export subsidies to remain in place for some time There has been much focus over the past month on the shift towards greater trade protectionism by the US, and yet arguably the most significant development from India’s perspective was the action by... 23rd March 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Likely damage to China from tariffs only 0.1% of GDP The tariffs announced today will cause difficulties for some firms exporting from China but will have a barely perceptible impact on China’s wider economy. The key uncertainty now is whether President... 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update How big a deal are the China tariffs? The tariffs on Chinese imports outlined by President Donald Trump today won’t have a huge impact on the economy even if implemented in full, and we suspect they will end up being watered down. But as... 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Fall in the lira highlights Turkey’s external vulnerabilities The Turkish lira has steadied in recent days, but the sharp decline seen earlier this month has reinforced concerns about the risks posed by the widening current account deficit. If the government... 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update No need to fear the Fed The prospect of additional US rate hikes could weigh on commodity prices this year and will almost certainly lead to a lower gold price. But our negative outlook for industrial commodity prices is... 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update African Trade: The devil is in the details Political leaders from across Africa have gathered in Rwanda to sign an ambitious new trade pact. The African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) has been billed as the first step to creating a... 21st March 2018 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Weak spending growth just a blip The latest data indicate that GDP growth was no more than 2.5% annualised in the first quarter, with real consumption growth slowing to around 2%. That would hardly be a disaster, but is disappointing... 21st March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs in a world of rising bond yields The EMs with the largest debt burdens are (unsurprisingly) most vulnerable to a spike in global borrowing costs. However, interest rates are only one of several components that determine debt... 21st March 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Feb.) Capital outflows edged up slightly in February in seasonally-adjusted terms, though they remain low. The PBOC again refrained from directly intervening in FX markets last month. But with the economy... 21st March 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus Africa: Debt positions fragile in face of economic shocks Africa’s public debt problems are currently concentrated in Mozambique, Angola, Ghana, Nigeria, & Zambia. Elsewhere, however, it would only take a small shock to prompt a crisis (Kenya & South Africa... 21st March 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Should we be worried about capital flows? A drop in foreign direct investment inflows and a pick-up in portfolio inflows into India has led to concerns that the economy is once again becoming vulnerable to a sudden halt in foreign financing... 21st March 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Feb) & Current Account (Q4 2017) Weaker South African inflation (which slowed to 4.0% y/y in February) will add to calls for an interest rate cut this month. But we think that pending VAT hikes and a widening current account deficit... 20th March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Can the G20 avert a trade war? Finance ministers from the G20 are not going to resolve the differences between the US and most other members of the group on trade policy this week. They may, however, make a commitment to reduce... 19th March 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Robust trade growth to support oil demand Despite the risk of further protectionist measures by President Trump and retaliation by China and the EU, we think that growth in world trade is likely to remain strong this year, which should help... 19th March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP & Current Account (Q4) The stronger-than-expected increase in Chilean GDP growth in Q4 was driven by a pick-up in domestic demand, and we expect the recovery to continue over the next year or so. Today’s data support our... 19th March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Can the G20 avert a trade war? Finance ministers from the G20 are not going to resolve the differences between the US and most other members of the group on trade policy this week. They may, however, make a commitment to reduce... 19th March 2018 · 1 min read
