Japan Data Response External Trade (Mar.) Distortions related to the Lunar New Year unwound in March, but we estimate that net trade still turned into a drag on GDP growth last quarter. 18th April 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Markets recover as fears of imminent trade war recede Equity markets across Emerging Asia have bounced back a little since early April as fears of an imminent trade war between the US and China have receded. The decision by the US Treasury not to label... 17th April 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update External deficit in check amid rising trade tensions India’s trade deficit widened in March, but we think it will still remain comfortable over the coming months despite the recent ramping up of trade-related attacks by the US. 16th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Apr.) Our Tracker shows that aggregate capital flows to EMs have been resilient over the past few months in the face of fears of a protectionist shift in the US and sell-offs in equity markets. Concerns... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Economic recovery will peak this year We expect that economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will continue to accelerate in 2018. This recovery will be driven largely by South Africa and Nigeria, where growth is set to pick up by more than... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Trade fears weigh on Swiss franc and Swedish krona Both the Swiss franc and the Swedish krona have depreciated by almost 1.5% against the euro over the past month. This has left the franc trading at its weakest level since the Swiss National Bank... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Feb.) After widening in February, the euro-zone’s nominal goods trade surplus is on track to be little changed in Q1. Looking ahead, the surveys suggest that the contribution from net trade to economic... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Will the US bully Japan into a free trade agreement? US President Trump has once again sown confusion by indicating that the US may still join the Trans Pacific Partnership. However, he indicated that this would require a renegotiation of the agreement... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Mar.) Lunar New Year effects continued to distort China’s headline trade figures last month. But looking through this seasonal volatility, shipments look to have remained healthy, serving as a reminder that... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor US-China trade tensions: the supply chain impact on EMs The US tariffs on China announced last week will, if implemented, have knock on effects on other EMs though supply chains, particularly in parts of East Asia and in Chile. The impact of the measures... 12th April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Putting China’s surplus into perspective China’s bilateral trade surplus with the US and concerns about unfair trade practices are likely to keep US-China trade tensions boiling for a long time. But China’s overall current account surplus is... 12th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update China Treasury holdings offer little leverage in trade spat China’s holdings of Treasury securities, which currently stand at almost $1.2trn equivalent to 8.2% of the total outstanding, offer it little leverage in the current trade spat with the US. Dumping... 12th April 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production, Construction & Trade (Feb.) February’s activity data added to the evidence that the economy lost a little pace in Q1. But we don’t think that this will prevent the Monetary Policy Committee from raising interest rates again in... 11th April 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update India unlikely to be labelled “currency manipulator” India has not been spared the recent ramping up of trade-related attacks by the US, with the most notable action so far being the challenge to India’s use of export subsidies at the WTO. However... 11th April 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Tight labour market finally boosting pay Revised data show that regular earnings expanded at the fastest pace in two decades at the start of this year, underlining that the tight labour market is finally generating stronger cost pressures... 11th April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Has Xi done enough to placate Trump? In an attempt to de-escalate trade tensions, Xi has pledged to speed up efforts to reduce trade and investment barriers, boost competition and bolster intellectual property protections. This could... 10th April 2018 · 1 min read