Europe Economics Update How vulnerable is Germany to US tariffs? Germany faces little threat from the US aluminium and steel tariffs that might come into force this week, but would be hit harder than most other European economies if the US imposed broader tariffs... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Public debt fears concentrated in smaller frontiers Public debt positions across the emerging world have come under scrutiny recently and the risks appear to be concentrated in frontier markets. In aggregate, the debt-to-GDP ratio of frontier... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Struggling to reach potential A weakening housing market and the high level of household debt will probably prevent GDP growth in Australia from accelerating above 2.5% in the coming years, while the end of the migration boom may... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly NAFTA deal would boost foreign investment This week brought a furious last-minute push from all sides to reach a provisional deal on updating NAFTA, ahead of July’s Mexican presidential election. The US congressional mid-term elections won’t... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Remittance inflows to remain strong Remittance inflows are an important source of external funding for India, and were equivalent to 3% of GDP in 2017 – larger than FDI and portfolio inflows combined. Though there are some risks... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor World trade growth holding up well (for now) Data published earlier today show that global trade was expanding rapidly in the three months ending in February. More timely business surveys suggest that it may have slowed since then, but they have... 25th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Central Europe shrugs off softness in euro-zone The latest data suggest that, while GDP growth in Central Europe has now peaked, it remained strong at 4.5-5.0% y/y in Q1. That came in spite of a raft of softer activity and survey figures from key... 25th April 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Economy gathering momentum Indian GDP growth hit a five-quarter high in Q4 2017, and various indicators suggest that the economy strengthened further in the first quarter of 2018. Industrial production growth last quarter may... 24th April 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) The manufacturing PMI suggests that activity in the sector remains healthy but firms are getting increasingly concerned about the outlook for external demand. 23rd April 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Winds of change reach Ethiopia Ethiopia’s ruling party appointed a new prime minister on 2nd April, stabilising a situation that had been in flux since the previous incumbent’s resignation in February. Abiy Ahmed inherits a divided... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Trade war fears overblown, for now President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on imports from China have raised concerns of a trade war between the world’s two largest economies. Many fear that this could have knock-on effects on EMs... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Apr.) A rise in US-China trade tensions has dominated headlines in recent weeks. But recent developments are not having any impact on cross-border capital flows. Our estimates suggest that flows in and out... 19th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Export soft spot adds to evidence EM growth has peaked The export components of the EM business surveys have not deteriorated to the same extent as those in developed markets over the past couple of months, but they nonetheless add to the evidence that... 19th April 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s current account deficit to narrow further The narrowing in Egypt’s current account deficit has further to run, supported by a recovery in the tourism sector and strong export growth. This will help to limit downward pressure on the pound and... 19th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Should we worry about the rise in EM public debt? The IMF’s latest Fiscal Monitor has put the rise in EM public debt over the past decade back under the spotlight. While debt ratios have increased across most of the emerging world, major... 19th April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Short-term risks of protectionism are overstated Even if the US and China were to follow through on their recent protectionist threats, the impact on global growth in the next year or two would be small. Moreover, a bigger and more damaging... 18th April 2018 · 1 min read
