Commodities Update No need to fear the Fed The prospect of additional US rate hikes could weigh on commodity prices this year and will almost certainly lead to a lower gold price. But our negative outlook for industrial commodity prices is... 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update African Trade: The devil is in the details Political leaders from across Africa have gathered in Rwanda to sign an ambitious new trade pact. The African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) has been billed as the first step to creating a... 21st March 2018 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Weak spending growth just a blip The latest data indicate that GDP growth was no more than 2.5% annualised in the first quarter, with real consumption growth slowing to around 2%. That would hardly be a disaster, but is disappointing... 21st March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs in a world of rising bond yields The EMs with the largest debt burdens are (unsurprisingly) most vulnerable to a spike in global borrowing costs. However, interest rates are only one of several components that determine debt... 21st March 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Feb.) Capital outflows edged up slightly in February in seasonally-adjusted terms, though they remain low. The PBOC again refrained from directly intervening in FX markets last month. But with the economy... 21st March 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus Africa: Debt positions fragile in face of economic shocks Africa’s public debt problems are currently concentrated in Mozambique, Angola, Ghana, Nigeria, & Zambia. Elsewhere, however, it would only take a small shock to prompt a crisis (Kenya & South Africa... 21st March 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Should we be worried about capital flows? A drop in foreign direct investment inflows and a pick-up in portfolio inflows into India has led to concerns that the economy is once again becoming vulnerable to a sudden halt in foreign financing... 21st March 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Feb) & Current Account (Q4 2017) Weaker South African inflation (which slowed to 4.0% y/y in February) will add to calls for an interest rate cut this month. But we think that pending VAT hikes and a widening current account deficit... 20th March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Can the G20 avert a trade war? Finance ministers from the G20 are not going to resolve the differences between the US and most other members of the group on trade policy this week. They may, however, make a commitment to reduce... 19th March 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Robust trade growth to support oil demand Despite the risk of further protectionist measures by President Trump and retaliation by China and the EU, we think that growth in world trade is likely to remain strong this year, which should help... 19th March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP & Current Account (Q4) The stronger-than-expected increase in Chilean GDP growth in Q4 was driven by a pick-up in domestic demand, and we expect the recovery to continue over the next year or so. Today’s data support our... 19th March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Can the G20 avert a trade war? Finance ministers from the G20 are not going to resolve the differences between the US and most other members of the group on trade policy this week. They may, however, make a commitment to reduce... 19th March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Jan.) The euro-zone’s nominal goods trade surplus narrowed in January, and since then survey indicators of export orders have weakened slightly. Nevertheless, we think that the euro-zone’s trade surplus... 19th March 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Feb.) Seasonal swings related to Chinese New Year pushed the trade balance into the red in February. However, we suspect that these moves will reverse in March. 19th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor US tariff action on China would hit other EMs too Media reports suggest that the US is planning to impose more extensive tariffs on China. This could have a significant knock-on impact for a number of economies in Emerging Asia (Taiwan, Malaysia... 16th March 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly An escalation of trade tariffs poses a big threat You could argue that an escalation of global trade tariffs could actually benefit Australia and New Zealand in the near-term if it caused their currencies to weaken and led China to stimulate its own... 16th March 2018 · 1 min read