Asia Chart Pack Heightened uncertainty in Malaysia post-election In a massive political upset, the incumbent Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition led by Najib Razak was ousted by a resurgent opposition led by former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad in Malaysia’s 14 th... 28th May 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly US keeps the heat on in NAFTA negotiations The NAFTA negotiations appeared to be winding down quietly since there was no longer enough time left for the US Congress to pass legislation before the end of this year. But President Donald Trump... 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor Signs of slowdown not yet a major concern The latest data provide further evidence that the world economy has lost some momentum. Growth of world trade has softened significantly in recent months, mirroring the weakness in the purchasing... 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update US auto tariffs would trigger retaliation from Japan The imposition of high tariffs on car imports that the US is considering would have a palpable impact on economic activity in Japan. This may be another empty threat by the Trump administration, but... 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina not (yet) facing a public debt crisis Despite the near-25% drop in the peso against the dollar so far this year, Argentina is not yet facing a sovereign debt crisis. The public debt ratio will rise this year, but not to an alarming level... 23rd May 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Deal with China doesn’t address underlying tensions The deal the US has apparently reached with China averts a full-blown trade war and provides another example of the administration backing down from tough rhetoric on trade in return for relatively... 23rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: near-term outlook is bright Egypt’s economy has weathered the fallout from the pound’s devaluation in late-2016 and, as fiscal consolidation slows and inflation and interest rates drop back, growth should remain robust over the... 23rd May 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack BJP still in strong position despite Karnataka setback The BJP’s failure to form a coalition despite winning by far the most seats in the Karnataka state election is a setback for the ruling national party, with the main opposition Congress and the local... 23rd May 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Apr.) Rising US bond yields and trade tensions have dominated headlines over the past month. But there is no sign that either has had a big impact on flows of capital in or out of China. We estimate that... 21st May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Maduro 2.0: messy debt default on the cards The victory for Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela’s presidential election paves the way for an escalation of US sanctions – possibly on the oil sector – and a messy sovereign debt default and restructuring... 21st May 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Apr.) Some of the rebound in trade values in April reflects higher export and import prices. The key point though is that export volumes continue to outpace import volumes. 21st May 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Long-delayed budget tells us little The 2018 budget finally passed by Nigerian legislators yesterday will have little effect on fiscal policy. Expenditure – particularly on capital projects – will fall far below the government’s... 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Malaysia GDP (Q1) While today’s figures show that the new government inherits an economy in decent health, the scrapping of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) and campaign pledges to review Chinese investment have made... 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Trade deficit to remain in check India’s goods trade deficit held steady in April, and we think it will remain comfortable over the coming months despite the recent ramping up of trade-related attacks by the US. 16th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update After Argentina, who might be next? Argentina’s currency crisis and turn to the IMF for financial support have raised questions about how much ammunition EMs’ foreign exchange reserves provide. On the broadest measure of external... 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Early signs of an EM export slowdown The very latest trade figures show that EM export growth has already started to soften and the continued weakening of the survey data suggest that this slowdown will continue in the coming months. 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
