Commodities Update Weakness in China’s oil imports only temporary China’s commodity import volumes rebounded in May owing to a pick-up in demand for metals. However, imports of energy commodities remained weak. We still think that commodity import growth is likely... 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish investment growth will remain robust After a strong Q1, Polish fixed investment growth will stay robust over the duration of 2018. However, this won’t be enough to prevent headline GDP growth from slowing. 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana: Balance sheet weaknesses ebbing After a difficult period, recent data show that Ghana’s balance sheet problems are now behind us. While problems in the banking sector have emerged, policymakers are taking the right steps to tackle... 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (May) Import growth was surprisingly strong last month. This probably reflects a continued recovery in industrial activity following the easing of winter pollution controls and is unlikely to be sustained... 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Relying again on resources In order to grow by 3.1% in the year to the first quarter, the Australian economy returned to the old habit of relying on resources. This won’t be possible in the second quarter nor in the coming... 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX Reserves (May) The latest foreign exchange reserves data are consistent with very little PBOC action in the FX markets. This suggests that the recent resilience of the renminbi relative to other EM currencies... 7th June 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Qatar: A year on from the blockade One year after the diplomatic crisis surrounding Qatar first erupted, the economy appears to have weathered the storm. An escalation of the crisis remains the key threat to the economic outlook, but... 7th June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Apr.) After having been a big factor behind the strong rise in GDP in the first quarter, April’s international trade data suggest that net exports won’t be as supportive in the second quarter. So just one... 7th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Fed balance sheet confusion rears its head again Fears that a reduction in the size of the Fed’s balance sheet will somehow reduce the amount of dollars available to EMs to finance their external liabilities is grounded in a fundamental... 6th June 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Apr.) The April trade data suggest that net exports are on track to provide a sizeable boost to second quarter GDP growth, which we now expect to be as high as 4% annualised. 6th June 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Contours of a possible trade deal are emerging China has reportedly fleshed out its offer to boost imports from the US. In return, the US is working on a deal to allow ZTE to resume operations and may call off the planned tariffs on Chinese goods... 6th June 2018 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q1) Australia stands out as one of the few advanced economies that strengthened at the start of the year. But with households struggling even before the Royal Commission has prompted tighter credit... 6th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack World economy resilient to renewed trade tensions The risk of a global trade war has risen in the past few weeks. President Trump has gone ahead with plans to levy tariffs on steel and aluminium imports, which is likely to provoke retaliation. In... 5th June 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico tariffs raise tensions The direct effect of Mexico’s new tariffs on imports from the US will be moderate. But the move will make the process of renegotiating Nafta even more difficult. The peso has fallen sharply in... 5th June 2018 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe: Net trade increasingly dragging on growth GDP breakdowns for the economies of Central Europe showed that, while domestic demand remained strong in Q1, net trade dragged on growth across the region. With capacity constraints starting to bite... 5th June 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Spain can cope without Rajoy but Italian politics still a worry In any other week, the imposition of tariffs on the EU by the US would have taken centre stage. But amid the political and market turmoil in Italy and the downfall of Spain’s government, this was no... 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
