Global Economics Update How hard could car tariffs hit the euro-zone? President Trump’s threat to retaliate to EU tariffs with a 20% tax on EU car exports sounds alarming. In fact, the direct effect on the euro-zone would be smaller than you might think, perhaps... 26th June 2018 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update How hard could car tariffs hit the euro-zone? President Trump’s threat to retaliate to EU tariffs with a 20% tax on EU car exports sounds alarming. In fact, the direct effect on the euro-zone would be smaller than you might think, perhaps... 26th June 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update More to Chile’s short-term debt than meets the eye Chile’s short-term external debt burden is one of the largest in the emerging world, but there is more to it than meets the eye. A large chunk reflects intercompany lending, and most of this is... 26th June 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China and India Gold Imports (May) The latest trade data for India and China show divergent trends in imports of gold by the two largest consumers. China’s gold imports rose strongly in May on the back of robust wholesale consumption... 26th June 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Philippines: A two-year progress report on President Duterte Two years after coming to power, President Duterte of the Philippines has not been the disaster for the economy that some feared. Growth has remained strong, while economic policy has been left in the... 26th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor World trade makes a partial recovery as tensions build The rebound in world trade volumes in April offers some reassurance that global trade has not collapsed. And while recent survey and “hard” data are giving some mixed signals about the near-term... 25th June 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Time to worry about a trade war? Trade tensions have escalated faster and further than we had originally anticipated, capped this week by President Trump’s threat to apply a 10% tariff to $200bn of imports from China. We still think... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Heat rising over trade, inflation cooling While Japan has close economic ties to both the US and China, it shouldn’t be too badly affected if the trade dispute between them heats up. Perhaps the main concern is that a trade war would cause... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly SARB under pressure, Nigerian budget signifies little Markets are getting ahead of themselves by pricing in rate hikes in South Africa. Policymakers have explicitly said that they will not react to currency moves until they see a lasting effect on... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (June) The manufacturing PMI was little changed in June and still points to robust gains in industrial output. And the recent surge in crude oil prices is boosting price pressures. 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Trade war, the dollar and the RBA The combination of the escalation in global trade tensions and some dovish developments at home have dragged down the Australian dollar to a one-year low of US$0.74. We suspect it will weaken further... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Current Account (Q1) After widening in Q1, South Africa’s current account deficit will likely narrow later this year. The deficit strengthens calls for a rate hike, though we maintain that the SARB will leave rates on... 21st June 2018 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Capital flows balanced despite rise in trade tensions Against a backdrop of rising trade tensions with the US and jitters about the wider outlook for emerging economies, capital flows in and out of China have been broadly balanced. Global investors still... 21st June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update The possible spillovers from the US-China trade spat The escalating trade spat between the US and China could potentially boost the Australian economy in the near-term. But any reduction in global trade would be bad news for Australia in the long-term... 20th June 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China’s next steps If President Trump follows through on his threat to expand further the range of Chinese goods subjectto punitive tariffs, China is likely to respond quickly by targeting US firms operating in China... 19th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM market fallout from trade fears escalating The details of the Trump administration’s threat to step up its trade conflict with China are not yet clear, but one notable feature is that the market fallout for the emerging world has been greater... 19th June 2018 · 1 min read
