India Economic Outlook Strong growth likely in run-up to election Economic growth has surged in recent quarters and we expect it to remain strong over the next year or so, supported by buoyant private and government consumption ahead of the general election that is... 5th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Q2 growth set to be healthy, but slower than last year Hard data relating to euro-zone activity in Q2 have been a little disappointing so far, denting hopes that GDP growth would rebound strongly after Q1’s 0.4% quarterly expansion. Industrial production... 5th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Signs of a rebound in Q2 The improvement in all three Markit/CIPS PMI surveys in June provided further signs that the economy has rebounded after the weak start to the year. Indeed, the all-sector PMI rose from 54.3 in May to... 5th July 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales & International Trade (May) It looks as though a rebound in consumption growth will broadly offset a weakening in the external sector in the second quarter to keep the Australian economy cruising along nicely in the second... 4th July 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update US-China tariffs may shift import demand to other EMs The tariffs imposed by China and the US on $34bn of each other’s imports – that will come into force on Friday – are likely to have a small, negative impact on most of the emerging world. But some EMs... 3rd July 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Protectionism not the only headwind for EM currencies Emerging market (EM) currencies have mostly recovered a little ground against the dollar today. But the bigger picture is that they have generally been weakening for some time now, and in our view... 3rd July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update US-China tariffs may shift import demand to other EMs The tariffs imposed by China and the US on $34bn of each other’s imports – that will come into force on Friday – are likely to have a small, negative impact on most of the emerging world. But some EMs... 3rd July 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jun.) The June PMIs for Emerging Asia indicate that the region’s manufacturing sectors remained in decent health. Meanwhile, Korean export data suggest export growth in the rest of the region likely ended... 2nd July 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response PMIs (Jun.) The latest PMI readings suggest that the economy lost some momentum last month. With credit growth still cooling and US tariffs imminent, we expect further weakness ahead. 2nd July 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Economy shrugging off trade uncertainty Concerns over trade policy weighed on the markets this week, with only a brief respite from President Donald Trump’s last-minute decision to cancel the planned announcement of new investment... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Quarterly National Accounts (Q1) Despite the upward revision to Q1 GDP growth, the breakdown left the economy looking a little more fragile than before. But there are still reasons to be optimistic about the growth outlook. 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly S. Africa employment, Nigeria targets imports again This week’s South African employment figures were less positive than they appear at first glance. Elsewhere, official economic growth slowed in Ghana in Q1. New poverty estimates caused a storm in... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Vietnam GDP (Q2) Vietnam’s economy recorded another quarter of strong growth in the second quarter of the year. While growth should remain robust in the near term, helped by continued solid export demand and loose... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Trade tensions cast a wide net Concerns about the escalation in trade tensions and the potential negative implications for global GDP growth have sparked a sell-off in commodity markets this month. However, even if fears of a trade... 27th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Four signs equity investors are worrying about trade Trade tensions have not caused any dramatic moves yet, but there are at least four clear signs in the equity markets of investors becoming more nervous about the possibility of a global trade war. 27th June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Aussie and kiwi dollars may depreciate further The Australian and New Zealand dollars have weakened to US$0.74 and US$0.68 respectively as rising trade tensions between the US and China have reduced the appetite for riskier currencies. Looking... 27th June 2018 · 1 min read
