Latin America Economics Update Argentina not (yet) facing a public debt crisis Despite the near-25% drop in the peso against the dollar so far this year, Argentina is not yet facing a sovereign debt crisis. The public debt ratio will rise this year, but not to an alarming level... 23rd May 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Deal with China doesn’t address underlying tensions The deal the US has apparently reached with China averts a full-blown trade war and provides another example of the administration backing down from tough rhetoric on trade in return for relatively... 23rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: near-term outlook is bright Egypt’s economy has weathered the fallout from the pound’s devaluation in late-2016 and, as fiscal consolidation slows and inflation and interest rates drop back, growth should remain robust over the... 23rd May 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack BJP still in strong position despite Karnataka setback The BJP’s failure to form a coalition despite winning by far the most seats in the Karnataka state election is a setback for the ruling national party, with the main opposition Congress and the local... 23rd May 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Apr.) Rising US bond yields and trade tensions have dominated headlines over the past month. But there is no sign that either has had a big impact on flows of capital in or out of China. We estimate that... 21st May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Maduro 2.0: messy debt default on the cards The victory for Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela’s presidential election paves the way for an escalation of US sanctions – possibly on the oil sector – and a messy sovereign debt default and restructuring... 21st May 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Apr.) Some of the rebound in trade values in April reflects higher export and import prices. The key point though is that export volumes continue to outpace import volumes. 21st May 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Long-delayed budget tells us little The 2018 budget finally passed by Nigerian legislators yesterday will have little effect on fiscal policy. Expenditure – particularly on capital projects – will fall far below the government’s... 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Malaysia GDP (Q1) While today’s figures show that the new government inherits an economy in decent health, the scrapping of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) and campaign pledges to review Chinese investment have made... 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Trade deficit to remain in check India’s goods trade deficit held steady in April, and we think it will remain comfortable over the coming months despite the recent ramping up of trade-related attacks by the US. 16th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update After Argentina, who might be next? Argentina’s currency crisis and turn to the IMF for financial support have raised questions about how much ammunition EMs’ foreign exchange reserves provide. On the broadest measure of external... 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Early signs of an EM export slowdown The very latest trade figures show that EM export growth has already started to soften and the continued weakening of the survey data suggest that this slowdown will continue in the coming months. 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The drivers of Turkey’s widening current account deficit The deterioration in Turkey’s current account position since mid-2017 has been driven by a surge in gold imports, a rising energy import bill and strong domestic demand feeding through into imports of... 14th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (May) Capital flows to emerging markets have slowed in recent weeks. But for all the talk of a broad-based selloff in EM assets and a pull-back by foreign investors, there’s little evidence so far to... 9th May 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Higher spending causes Saudi budget deficit to widen Saudi Arabia’s budget deficit widened in Q1 compared with a year earlier as a raft of public sector bonuses more than offset the boost to revenues from the introduction of a new value-added tax. That... 8th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What does the fall in the lira mean for Turkey’s FX debts? The latest fall in the Turkish lira doesn’t appear to have resulted in widespread balance sheet strains, but there are significant vulnerabilities in the corporate and banking sectors. This adds to... 8th May 2018 · 1 min read