Asia Economics Focus Assessing Asia’s vulnerability to a trade war Rising trade tensions between the US and China pose a major threat to the economic outlook for the region. The impact of the measures announced so far by President Trump should be small, and will be... 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Taiwan GDP (Q2 Advanced) GDP growth in Taiwan rebounded last quarter to the second-fastest pace in more than three years. But with external headwinds increasing, we expect the economy to soften over the second half of the... 31st July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth starting to lose momentum Our GDP Tracker suggests that aggregate EM growth was stronger over Q2 as a whole than it was in Q1, but there are early signs that momentum faded towards the end of the quarter. 30th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Mining boost to economic growth no flash in the pan Unlike the pre-tariff spike in soybean exports, the near-100% annualised surge in mining structures investment in the second quarter, which accounted for 0.4% points of the 4.1% annualised gain in... 30th July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Nafta talks restart, dire data from Argentina The relatively modest rise in the Mexican peso against the dollar in reaction to the positive news flow on Nafta talks suggests that investors are interpreting recent events with caution. Indeed, a... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly EU and US still a long way from a trade deal The easing of trade tensions between the US and EU this week reduces the risk that the US will soon increase tariffs on EU cars, but it still leaves us a long way from any action to reduce trade... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Equities jump, exports resilient, BoK points to rate hike Asian equities have rebounded over the past week, helped in part by easing fears of a global trade war after the successful trade meeting between US President Donald Trump and EU President Jean-Claude... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly More easing coming, China still in US crosshairs Policy easing efforts were expanded this week. Fiscal loosening was given the green light. The People’s Bank adopted a more proactive approach to ensuring that its liquidity injections translate into... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Conditions faltering The latest activity figures suggest that EM growth faltered a bit in the middle of Q2. Consumer spending slowed in April and May, while EM industry seems to have started to lose momentum. Forward... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Trade war cancelled…maybe The unexpectedly successful trade meeting between President Donald Trump and EU President Jean-Claude Juncker yesterday has raised hopes that a much bigger trade war can be averted. Admittedly, the... 26th July 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Markets weather US-Iran tensions, Egypt seeks oil hedge Financial markets across the MENA region have shrugged off the latest escalation of tensions between the US and Iran, although we doubt that this resilience will last. Meanwhile, news that Egypt will... 26th July 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Will Cambodia’s investment-led growth last? Hun Sen is likely to record his fifth election victory on Sunday against the backdrop of an economy riding high on the back of a Chinese investment boom. Chinese money should help to support strong... 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Next round of trade war likely to hit US assets harder Despite the resilience of the S&P 500 recently, US assets have not been altogether immune to trade tensions. And we think that they will come under a lot more pressure if, as seems increasingly likely... 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor World trade losing momentum, but not collapsing World trade volumes rose in May but their underlying rate of growth dropped again. We continue to think that the evidence does not yet point to anything worse than a modest slowdown. 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Weak balance sheets come into focus Market concerns over fragile balance sheets have forced policymakers in a number of frontier economies to take action over the past month. Strains in the balance of payments prompted the authorities... 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Poland will soon enter era of weaker growth Poland’s economy is set to expand at a robust pace over the remainder of 2018, but rising inflation and tighter monetary policy will cause the economy to slow by more than is widely anticipated in... 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
