US Economics Update Midterms 2018: What's at stake? The most likely outcome of the midterm elections is legislative gridlock, although a second round of tax cuts would be unlikely even if the Republicans narrowly maintain control of both Houses of... 7th August 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Iran, sanctions and the implications for the rest of MENA The re-introduction of the first tranche of US sanctions on Iran, which came into force today, will result in a downturn in Iran’s economy but, as things stand, the economic impact on the rest of the... 7th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: another emergency rate hike? The Turkish lira has recovered some of its losses in the past few hours, but the plunge in the currency over the past few weeks is now on a scale which has, in the past, prompted the central bank to... 7th August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & Trade (Jun.) June’s industrial production and trade figures suggest that the previously booming German economy is already feeling the effects of trade tensions. But with the domestic economy in good shape and... 7th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What’s behind the EM export slowdown? The recent slowdown in EM export volume growth has been driven by weaker demand from the euro-zone, as well as a number of idiosyncratic supply-side factors, notably a plunge in oil and agricultural... 6th August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update China’s tariffs may help LNG exports in the long-term Australia’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) producers are unlikely to benefit much from China’s proposal to impose a 25% tariff on LNG imports from the US simply because China doesn’t buy that much LNG... 6th August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Strong growth unlikely to last The world economy has rebounded after a sluggish first quarter, with global growth rising to around 4% annualised in Q2. But we doubt that this will last long because it has largely resulted from a... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Odds of a H2 interest rate hike increase Although May’s strong GDP growth partly reflected a rebound from earlier weakness, it was nevertheless encouraging and June’s trade data suggest that the economy ended the second quarter on a high... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly “Strong” GDP growth won’t be sustained While the Fed hailed activity growth as “strong” at its policy meeting this week, we doubt GDP growth will maintain a 4% plus annualised pace in the third quarter. It’s early days, but data released... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Renminbi decline will soften tariff blow The People’s Bank is signalling increasing discomfort with the recent pace of renminbi declines, including with a new restriction on forward currency transactions today. But the depreciation so far in... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Jun.) Following June’s jump in exports and decline in imports, net trade appears to have made a decent positive contribution to GDP growth in the second quarter. But with a variety of factors likely to... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jul.) & International Trade (Jun.) Non-farm payrolls increased by a more modest 157,000 in July but, with the gain in the preceding two months revised up by a cumulative 59,000, the labour market still appears to be in good health and... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Perfect storm brewing in Turkey, BMW comes to Hungary The US’s decision to impose sanctions on Turkey this week, as well as another bad inflation reading, has strengthened the case for further interest rate hikes. And there’s a growing risk of severe... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Aramco IPO slipping, Egypt’s car export hopes dented Reports that Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund is looking for alternative sources of financing suggest that the government is moving further away from its flagship sale of a stake in Aramco. This... 2nd August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is the fiesta over for the Spanish economy? The Spanish economy recorded its smallest quarterly expansion in four years in Q2 and the business surveys weakened again in July, suggesting that the period of very strong growth is at an end. But... 2nd August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Jun.) The recent fall in the Australian dollar may mean that over the next year the external sector will give the economy a bigger helping hand. But in the second quarter, it looks as though net exports... 2nd August 2018 · 1 min read
