Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) Even though the manufacturing PMI still points to robust gains in industrial production, there are signs that the prospect of a global trade war is weighing on external demand. 23rd August 2018 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Growth weakens Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that economic growth slowed in July to the weakest pace in five months. We think the slowdown has further to run. The US-China trade conflict will be a drag on... 22nd August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM tightening cycle continues EM central banks continued to tighten monetary policy in August. Policymakers in Argentina and Indonesia raised interest rates to support their currencies amid fears of contagion from the crisis in... 21st August 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update The impact on Japan of a trade war Even if it escalates, the trade dispute between the US and China shouldn’t do significant damage to Japan’s economy. US tariffs on Japanese vehicles would be a greater concern, while a blanket US... 21st August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP & Current Account (Q2) The surge in Chilean GDP growth to 5.3% y/y in Q2 was driven mainly by a pick-up in domestic demand, and is likely to mark the peak in the cycle. Growth is likely to soften gradually from here. And... 20th August 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Equities continue to scale new highs Indian equities have continued to surge in August, with the benchmark Sensex stock index rising to a fresh record high of over 38,000 today. The recent strong performance in the Sensex compared to... 20th August 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Third quarter shaping up better than expected We learned this week that much of the strength of consumption growth in the second quarter was sustained in July, suggesting that third quarter GDP growth will be stronger than we had anticipated. The... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Contagion from Italy likely to remain limited The sell-off in Italian bonds continued this week, and although we think that Italian yields have further to rise, we suspect that contagion will remain limited. Meanwhile, data released this week for... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Indonesia acts to support the rupiah, Korean job woes The authorities in Indonesia have redoubled their efforts to support the rupiah over the past week amid further downward pressure on EM currencies caused by the crisis in Turkey. Meanwhile, labour... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Bad loans on the rise Commercial banks’ non-performing loans (NPL) rose by RMB183bn in Q2, the biggest increase in over a decade. On paper, bad loans now make up just under 2% of all loans, the highest ratio since the... 16th August 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Malaysia: what to make of Mahathir’s first 100 days Following his shock election victory at the start of May, 93-year-old Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad has wasted no time in carrying out his main campaign promises. With his first 100 days in office... 16th August 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Jul.) The deterioration in the trade balance in July reflects a combination of rising import volumes and higher energy prices. We expect crude oil prices to fall over the coming months so the trade balance... 16th August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update First signs of tariff effects As expected, the first effects of tariffs introduced by the US and some of its key trade partners are quite small. The main risk to the world economy is from a much bigger escalation of the trade war... 15th August 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Is the trade deficit becoming a cause for concern? The further widening in India’s merchandise trade deficit last month is likely to heighten concerns over the external position, particularly amid the broader deterioration in market sentiment towards... 15th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jul.) Our Tracker shows that, in net terms, capital outflows from the emerging world eased in July, but the recent market turmoil suggests that the pace of outflows probably accelerated again in August. 14th August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Turkey parallels The falling rand has, yet again, highlighted the currency’s vulnerability to EM risk sentiment. From an economic perspective, however, the country’s situation is very different from Turkey’s building... 13th August 2018 · 1 min read
