Europe Economics Weekly Positive monthly data, Japan deal not a game-changer Recent euro-zone data releases have generally been encouraging, supporting our view that GDP growth picked up from 0.4% in Q1 to 0.5% in Q2. Meanwhile, the EU-Japan trade deal, signed this week, is... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly PBOC FX policy becoming more hands-on again The People’s Bank appears to be leaning against downward market pressure on the renminbi. But the depreciation it has allowed so far will already provide a cushion for China’s exporters as they face... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Trade war not the only headwind for risky assets Worries about a global trade war have already weighed on the prices of many risky assets, particularly those in Asia. And there is a growing risk that the US implements even more protectionist... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Putting the EU’s surplus in a global context The EU’s and, particularly, Germany’s trade practices have been criticised heavily by President Trump, prompting him in early July to label the trade bloc “as bad as China”. However, from a global... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Trade war & peace The trade war between China and the US will cause some collateral damage but the biggest potential threat to Japan’s economy is a US tariff on Japanese cars. For now though, our base case is that the... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Regional recovery gathering steam The raft of quarterly GDP data released over the past month confirmed that the MENA region rebounded at the start of this year and more timely figures suggest that the recovery is gathering momentum... 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Are better times ahead for exporters? New manufacturing orders have recently risen strongly and exporters are more optimistic than they have been in years. However, there are a number of reasons to doubt that an export revival is on the... 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jun.) Our Capital Flows Tracker suggests that the escalation of global trade tensions has resulted in an acceleration of outflows from the emerging world. 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Corporate defaults surge Corporate bond defaults in China have jumped recently, adding to worries about the economic outlook. July is on track to more than double the previous monthly record for the scale of onshore bonds... 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Outlook positive, but risks are rising Most European economies have experienced a slowdown since last year, but growth is still strong by historic standards and prospects are fairly bright. Admittedly, trade protection poses a serious... 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Fragilities easing, but not out of the woods yet Kenya’s wide current account deficit will narrow in 2019 as oil prices decline and food imports fall. But the situation will remain fragile; we think that economic growth will be softer than most... 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External Trade (June) Today’s trade data show a renewed plunge in imports in June and suggest that net trade continued to support GDP growth in the second quarter. 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Renewed momentum gives MPC the green light With sustained rises in real wages now in prospect, real consumer spending growth should accelerate again. Of course, Brexit-related uncertainties and their economic effects could intensify over the... 18th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Strong second quarter unlikely to be repeated Our calculations suggest that second-quarter GDP growth was as strong as 4.5% annualised, driven by a rebound in consumption growth and a big export-fuelled contribution from net external trade. It... 18th July 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Trade deficit widens as protectionist clouds build The further widening in India’s trade deficit last month, coupled with the growing protectionist threat from the US, will inevitably raise concerns. But unlike many other countries in Asia, India’s... 16th July 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Case for policy easing continuing to build The release of disappointing credit data a month ago catalysed a deterioration in sentiment about China’s economy. Today’s even weaker figures will only add to those concerns, with the early signs... 13th July 2018 · 1 min read