Canada Economics Weekly Auto tariffs a risk as trade talks drag on Comments from US President Donald Trump this week gave little indication that he is about to trigger the six-month NAFTA withdrawal period, but there is a rising risk of the US imposing auto tariffs... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Carmakers get a reprieve, the BoJ’s case for easing Japan’s government this week caved to US pressure to start discussions on a bilateral trade deal. But it appears to have won some valuable concessions in return. Meanwhile, we learnt more about what... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Economic impact of trade war still modest President Donald Trump’s renewed criticism of Canada this week means that the end-September deadline for a new trilateral NAFTA agreement is set to pass without a deal, increasing the threat that... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Shifting policy mix points to economic slowdown Boosted by the fiscal stimulus, GDP growth is still on track to be a solid 2.8% this year but, as that stimulus fades and the Fed continues to tighten monetary policy, we expect growth to slow to 2.2%... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Households squeezed by rising debt servicing costs Households’ debt service costs rose to 14.2% of incomes in the second quarter, the highest since 2008. The recent rise has been driven entirely by higher interest rates. Moreover, policy rate hikes... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Economy vulnerable to rate hikes Economic growth looks set to remain healthy in the near term, which will prompt the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates twice more. But the Bank is underestimating both the extent to which... 26th September 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack A good year for growth The surprising strength of economic growth in the second quarter has led us to revise up our forecasts for GDP growth in the 2018 calendar year from 2.5% to 3.2% for Australia and from 2.5% to 2.7%... 26th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor Further slowdown likely We expect the slowdown in world trade growth to continue next year as global demand weakens. Meanwhile, US-China trade tensions have risen – both countries imposed further tariffs on each other’s... 25th September 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update KORUS signed, but protectionist threat remains The revised Korea-US free trade agreement (KORUS) that was formally signed yesterday removes one of the potential downside risks for Korean exporters. However, with the US-China trade war intensifying... 25th September 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Investors under-pricing NAFTA risks The loonie continued to appreciate against the greenback this week, despite there seemingly being little chance of the US and Canada reaching a NAFTA deal before the month-end deadline. Investors... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Rising interest rates will take their toll in 2019 The surge in market interest rates, which continued this week, is already feeding through to higher borrowing costs for households and businesses and leaves us increasingly confident in our view that... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Markets surge, China considers import tariff cuts China’s financial markets shrugged off this week’s confirmation that both the US and China will be expanding their tariffs on Monday, with the Shanghai Composite actually having its best week since... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Rates hikes coming in the Philippines, markets resilient Rising inflationary pressures in the Philippines mean the country’s central bank is likely to raise interest rates by 50bp at its meeting next week. Bank Indonesia is also likely to raise rates, but... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Our new forecasts and the RBA’s trade war fears After revamping all our forecasts, we have concluded that the RBA and the RBNZ probably won’t raise interest rates until late in 2020 and late in 2021 respectively. That explains why we now expect the... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What’s driving stronger Saudi capital outflows? Capital outflows from Saudi Arabia have picked up over the past 18 months, but the bulk of this seems to reflect ongoing foreign investments by the sovereign wealth fund. A bigger concern from the... 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Shifts in trade policy There have been some notable shifts in Indian policymakers’ approach to foreign trade over the past month. For a start, the continued slide in the rupee caused the government to announce measures to... 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
