Emerging Markets Economics Update Rising trade tensions and what they mean for EMs The latest increase in trade tensions between the US and China so far appears to have had a larger impact on EM currency markets than previous flare-ups in the trade war. But the impact of the latest... 13th May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How big a threat are US tariffs to the EU? The US is stepping up the pressure on China to agree a trade deal, and a deadline to decide whether to raise tariffs on all auto imports is looming. On their own, those tariffs would do little damage... 13th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update The impact of the trade war on the rest of Asia The trade war between the US and China has so far had a very small impact on the rest of Asia, which has been dwarfed by the much bigger impact of the slowdown in global growth and the downturn in the... 13th May 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Trade dispute with China not a major threat to outlook President Donald Trump’s surprise move this week to impose higher tariffs on $200bn of Chinese imports could mark the start of a significant escalation in the trade dispute. Nevertheless, it might... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports to stay weak, regardless of trade war The rise in the US tariff rate on $200bn of imports from China that came into force today is only likely to have a small impact on China’s economy, let alone the rest of the emerging world. But... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Tariff hike, fiscal support, inflation risks The US hiked tariffs on Chinese goods on Friday. This escalation in trade tensions comes at a challenging time for the Chinese economy, with export growth already weak, fiscal support waning and swine... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Balance sheets improving, but vulnerabilities remain The health of balance sheets across the Middle East and North Africa have come under the spotlight in recent months. We are most concerned about some of the smaller economies, particularly Lebanon. 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Mar.) March’s rise in export volumes only partially reversed February’s slump, but exports probably rose again in April. After being a big drag on first-quarter GDP growth, which we estimate was only 1.0%... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Mar.) & Producer Prices (Apr.) With the rising possibility of a big escalation in the US-China trade dispute this week, March’s trade figures could represent the calm before the storm. The trade deficit widened trivially to $50.0bn... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack April jump in inflation won’t last Euro-zone GDP growth was stronger than expected in Q1, at 0.4% q/q, but we suspect that it will slow again in the coming quarters. Activity was flattered by the comparison with a weak end to 2018 and... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update The implications of a collapse in US/China trade talks We think that the direct effects of President Trump’s threatened tariff hikes could reduce Chinese GDP by up to 0.5%* and that the associated retaliation would have only a marginal direct impact on... 8th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Apr. 2019) Our Tracker suggests that EMs received positive (albeit small) net capital inflows in April. But fresh currency stress in Argentina and Turkey as well as concerns about renewed trade tensions suggest... 8th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update The implications of a collapse in US/China trade talks We think that the direct effects of President Trump’s threatened tariff hikes could reduce Chinese GDP by up to 0.4% and that the associated retaliation would have only a marginal direct impact on the... 8th May 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s oil imports flattered by stockbuilding Aside from oil, China’s commodity imports have generally been soft since the start of this year and there are now signs that export volumes are starting to come off the boil. Imports may pick up later... 8th May 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Apr.) Export growth last month was disappointing, with Trump’s latest tariff threats adding to the downside risks ahead. Meanwhile, higher commodity prices helped April’s import values beat expectations... 8th May 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update “No trade deal” back on the cards The risk of an escalation in the tariff war between the US and China has negative implications for our already subdued outlook for the global economy and commodity prices this year. 7th May 2019 · 1 min read
