India Economics Update

China’s threat to Indian manufacturing

India has made impressive progress in raising its share of global high-end electronics exports over the past few years. But, worryingly, it has failed to capture any additional market share in the...

23rd May 2024 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Brazil’s bumper trade surplus set to shrink

The sharp rise in Brazil’s goods exports and the widening of the trade surplus since 2019 have been a point of strength for the economy. But we think these will reverse course before long. This feeds...

21st May 2024 · 4 mins read

India Chart Pack

India Chart Pack (May 2024)

Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India has been the star performer among major EMs over the past several quarters and the latest data...

20th May 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack

Emerging Markets Chart Pack (May 2024)

Aggregate EM GDP growth will enter a slower phase over the coming quarters. But the headline figure masks large variation in prospects at the country level, with many EMs experiencing a reversal of...

20th May 2024 · 1 min read

Climate Economics Update

Chinese green export volumes remain at strong levels

Whilst export values of the “New Three” fell for the sixth consecutive month in y/y terms in April, export volumes remained close to their record peak. Meanwhile, the sharp drop-off in China’s exports...

20th May 2024 · 2 mins read

China Economics Weekly

Property support, imbalances growing, tariff retaliation

The property support measures outlined today are significant. If local governments and SOEs take advantage of the funding on offer to buy unsold inventory from developers, sales would rise by around...

17th May 2024 · 5 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

US-China tariffs raise stakes for EU

This week’s decision by the US government to hike tariffs on Chinese EVs to 100% may have been largely political and symbolic but it raises the stakes for Europe, which will complete its own...

17th May 2024 · 8 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Saudi gigaproject dilemma, Ras el-Hekma boost, Tunisia

Comments from Saudi Arabia’s Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan this week add to the evidence that spending on gigaprojects may be curtailed. But his comments pinning this on concerns about...

16th May 2024 · 7 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

How will Mexico’s election affect nearshoring prospects?

The policies of the Mexican presidential frontrunner, Claudia Sheinbaum, would provide a more supportive environment for the nearshoring of manufacturing supply chains. But we doubt that she’ll carry...

16th May 2024 · 4 mins read

China Economics Focus

China’s overseas lending push has stalled

Overseas loans by Chinese banks peaked in late 2021 and have since been curtailed in response to increased debt problems among EM borrowers. While these strains are partly a consequence of global...

16th May 2024 · 15 mins read

Global Economics Chart Pack

Global Economics Chart Pack (May 2024)

Our Global Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest data suggest that activity in Europe picked up at the start of this year, and...

15th May 2024 · 0 mins read

Global Economics Update

What the latest US tariffs mean for the global economy

We held an online Drop-In session today to discuss the Biden administration’s new tariffs on goods from China. This Update answers several of the questions that we received about the direct effects of...

15th May 2024 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Can Egypt take advantage of a weak pound?

Egypt’s shift back toward economic orthodoxy will result in near-term economic pain, but it could also pave the way for faster economic growth over a longer horizon. Part of that will rest on Egypt...

15th May 2024 · 5 mins read

China Economics Update

US tariffs tighten the ratchet again

The tariffs announced today on US imports from China won’t cause much direct economic damage since trade in the affected goods is already low. But US economic sanctions on China seem to act like a...

14th May 2024 · 5 mins read

Climate Economics Update

Battery imports to bear the brunt of new US tariffs

The impact of the US tariffs announced today will barely register on the paltry flows of solar panels and electric vehicles that China directly exports to the US. However, the new tariffs could have a...

14th May 2024 · 2 mins read