Emerging Markets Economics Update How do EMs adjust after a currency crisis? In the three years after a currency crisis, EMs almost always experience a collapse in imports, but the performance of exports is more mixed. Argentina looks similar to those economies that have seen... 12th September 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Is Lebanon lurching towards a crisis? Lebanon’s recent political deadlock has reignited fears over the country’s weak balance sheets. A fresh escalation of tensions with the Gulf is still a major threat and, as we’ve warned before, this... 11th September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German slowdown can’t be pinned on trade tensions The role of weakening exports in Germany’s recent slowdown makes it tempting to pin the whole thing on trade tensions. But the slowdown began before Trump’s tariff threats and seems more likely to... 11th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update The macroeconomic fallout from a China-US trade war For many companies the effects of the US and China imposing tariffs on all their bilateral trade would be substantial. But the macroeconomic consequences for the two countries, let alone the wider... 11th September 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Labour gaining the upper hand Summer bonuses rose the most since 1991 this year. That is partly a reflection of the surge in corporate profits in recent years. But workers are earning more than their fair share of the pie. Labour... 11th September 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Strong FDI inflows boosting external position India’s current account deficit remained at a sustainable level in Q2, confounding the fears that some had expressed of a sharp widening. What’s more, the deficit is now being financed primarily by... 10th September 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Inflation & Trade (Aug.) Consumer price inflation picked up last month, as African swine flu led to a jump in pork prices. But with broad price pressures still relatively subdued, it’s still too soon to sound the alarm on... 10th September 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada plays down trade risks While the Bank of Canada this week acknowledged the uncertainty created by the ongoing NAFTA negotiations, it also played down the risks of a further deterioration in trade relations. However, given... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Economy holding up despite EM problems Despite the steady flow of negative news about protectionism and crises in emerging economies, global growth is holding up well in Q3. Moreover, the labour market has continued to strengthen... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Is Macri a busted flush? The export tax announced by Argentina’s President Mauricio Macri this week, which formed the centrepiece of an emergency fiscal austerity package, will help to narrow the budget deficit. But the fact... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa in recession, Focac summit, Kenya fuel costs Figures released this week showed that South Africa’s economy performed even worse than we’d thought in Q2. Headline growth will probably recover in the second half of the year, but we’ve downgraded... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Downgrading our forecasts for Argentina The recent turmoil in local markets means that Argentina’s recession will be even deeper than we previously anticipated. We now expect a 4% drop in GDP over 2018 as a whole (vs. -0.5% previously), and... 6th September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa & China: Putting the Focac summit in context Attention focused on China-Africa ties this week as leaders from across the continent met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing for a major summit. In this Update we attempt to situate the... 6th September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Current Account (Q2) The improvement in South Africa’s current account deficit in Q2 should help to ease concerns about the country’s external financing needs and provide some support to the rand. Coming alongside the... 6th September 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Jul.) It looks as though the contribution to real GDP growth in the third quarter from net exports will be similar to the 0.1 percentage point added in the second quarter. But the near-stagnation in imports... 6th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Jul.) The sharp widening in the nominal trade deficit to a five-month high of $50.1bn in July, from $45.7bn, suggests that the big boost to GDP growth from net exports in the second quarter will be reversed... 5th September 2018 · 1 min read