Japan Data Response External trade (Oct.) The continued widening of the trade deficit suggests that net trade remained a drag on GDP growth in the fourth quarter. And while the recent strength in import growth probably won’t be sustained, the... 19th November 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Philippines: inflation to drop, external risks building Recent dovish comments from the Deputy Governor of the central bank of the Philippines (BSP), Diwa Guinigundo, which mention falling inflation expectations and the BSP having the “the flexibility to... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly FDI defying trade tensions, property price data quirks The recent strength of direct investment into China is a reminder that, despite rising US tariff barriers, the country remains an attractive destination for foreign firms. Even so, policymakers... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Trade deficit likely to narrow India’s merchandise trade deficit widened in October but we don’t think this should reignite concerns over the external position. With oil prices falling and the rupee having weakened in trade... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Uganda: Policy tightening to add headwinds to growth The Bank of Uganda will probably buck the regional trend next year by tightening policy further in response to a widening current account deficit. This will add to headwinds for economic growth. 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM Exports: Stable for now, but headed for a slowdown EM export growth remained strong in September, and probably picked up in October. But we think that a combination of escalating tariffs, lower commodity prices, and weaker economic growth in developed... 14th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Oct.) Our Tracker suggests that, in net terms, capital outflows from the emerging world picked up to about $100bn in the three months to October, the largest since “Trumpflation” in early 2017. But the pace... 13th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Slower global growth won’t stop UK rebound Concern that increasing Brexit uncertainty is causing the economy to slow sharply, as indicated by the slide in the PMI survey, look overdone. Indeed, other indicators are less downbeat. And while... 12th November 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Tariffs weigh on imports, but boost exports A closer look at the trade data for October bolsters our suspicions that firms have been frontloading shipments from China to the US. Meanwhile, President Xi opened this week’s import expo with an... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Doubts about USMCA, positive signs from housing While the US midterm results mean that there is now even more uncertainty about when the USMCA might be signed by Congress, we do not think that the trade deal itself is in doubt. Meanwhile, there... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Q3 bright spots fade, better lies ahead The past week’s data cast a shadow over some of the few remaining bright spots in Q3. Next week’s GDP release is very likely to show that Japan’s economy contracted for a second time this year... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Has a weaker ruble helped Russia’s economy? There’s little evidence so far to suggest that the fall in the ruble this year has boosted Russia’s economy, but we think the positive effects will begin to materialise in 2019. 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Reform boost for Vietnam, regional growth slows The opening up of Vietnam’s economy has gathered pace over the pace couple of months, with the government pressing ahead with a series of reforms which should boost the country’s economic prospects... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Q3 growth hit by temporary drop in car production The slowdown in quarterly euro-zone GDP growth to just 0.2% in Q3 came as a major disappointment, but there are good reasons to expect the economic expansion to regain a little pace in the quarters... 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Oct.) Chinese export growth picked up slightly last month, with no sign yet that US tariffs have had a major negative impact. Import growth also picked up, driven largely by growth in underlying volumes. 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Are EMs’ current accounts still a point of concern? The large current account deficits in Turkey and Argentina that precipitated currency crises this year are now narrowing and external positions are in decent shape in most major EMs. But there are a... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
