Africa Chart Pack Africa: Oil prices batter key economies The recent sharp fall in oil prices will add to headwinds facing the economies of Nigeria and Angola. We estimate that both country’s export revenues will have fallen by about a US$1bn over the past... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update G20…or Xi20? The most that can reasonably be hoped for from talks between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump at this weekend’s G20 meeting is an agreement which temporarily reduces US-China tensions. Meanwhile, the wider... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Inflation set to fall sharply The recent slump in crude oil prices means that the tailwind to consumer price inflation from soaring energy prices won’t be sustained. After boosting Australia’s headline inflation by 0.6 percentage... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Fall in oil prices a net positive for most of Lat Am The drop in oil prices this month is clearly bad news for the region’s large net energy exporters, Colombia and Venezuela; a fiscal squeeze in on the cards in the former and the latter’s crisis will... 28th November 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Assessing the impact of the tariffs so far The trade war has so far resulted in a much sharper slowdown in China’s imports from the US than its exports to the US. But exports will weaken soon unless existing tariffs are rolled back. 28th November 2018 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Russian markets hold up despite oil fall, Ukraine spat Russian financial markets have tumbled following the naval dispute with Ukraine, but the big picture is that local asset prices have held up well this month given the backdrop of falling oil prices... 26th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What the fall in oil prices means for EMs The recent drop in oil prices will help Turkey’s balance of payments adjustment and should boost the terms of trade and growth in large EM oil importers including South Africa and India. The obvious... 26th November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor Further weakness on the horizon Having rounded off Q3 on a disappointing note, we think that world trade volumes will lose more momentum in the coming year or so as global demand weakens due to slowdowns in the US and China. A... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Trade truce wouldn’t avert further fall in RMB, equities Expectations are low that Presidents Xi and Trump will resolve their differences at the G20 summit, but a temporary truce that puts on hold the planned US tariff hike in January is possible. In this... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swiss-EU relations freeze bodes ill for Swiss economy Sunday’s referendum on whether to place Swiss law above international law threatens to undermine treaty negotiations currently taking place between Switzerland and the EU. Failure to strike a deal on... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Trade war not to blame for Q3 slowdown A lot of commentary has blamed the slowdown in Asian GDP growth in the third quarter on the trade war between the US and China. We think these claims are misguided. The most obvious explanation for... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf markets under pressure as oil slumps The recent plunge in oil prices is unlikely to cause major economic ructions in the Gulf, but it has taken a toll on local financial markets. Brent crude has plunged from $85pb at the start of October... 21st November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Weaker currency helping Turkey more than Argentina A rise in inflation and higher interest rates mean Turkey and Argentina are likely to experience deep recessions over the next couple of quarters. However, whereas the fall in the lira should help to... 20th November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Lack of manufacturing will hold back growth Africa’s failure to develop export-orientated manufacturing sectors is holding back economic development across the region. We expect that this will remain a key weakness over the long term. Even in... 20th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP & Current Account (Q3) The slowdown in Chilean GDP growth from 5.3% y/y in Q2 to 2.8% y/y in Q3 was driven in large part by a drop in export growth, but there are also signs that domestic demand is losing some steam. While... 19th November 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Thailand GDP (Q3) GDP growth in Thailand slowed sharply in Q3, and is likely to struggle for momentum in the quarters ahead due to a combination of weaker external demand and a faltering tourism sector. 19th November 2018 · 1 min read
