Africa Data Response South Africa Current Account (Q3) The larger-than-expected South African current account deficit in Q3, of 3.5% of GDP, adds to the reasons to think that the Reserve Bank will tighten monetary policy a little further in the next few... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Recession risks rising in Italy After contracting in Q3, activity surveys suggest that Italy’s economy is on the brink of recession. Indeed, the Composite PMI was unchanged at 49.3 in November, which on past form points to GDP... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales & International Trade (Oct.) Household spending isn’t falling off a cliff just yet but we still think that the downturn in the housing market will restrain consumption growth before long. Meanwhile, net trade may turn into a drag... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Heading for a weak Q4 Following the solid rise in GDP in the third quarter, the recent news has been disappointing. The business surveys suggest that output barely increased at all in November. And following a brief period... 5th December 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan: external position improving but growth to slow The collapse in the rupee and an aggressive tightening of monetary policy is leading to a welcome fall in Pakistan’s external imbalances. However, with most of the adjustment taking place through a... 5th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor US-China deal delays escalation, at least for now The ‘cease fire’ in the US-China trade war has reduced a risk for Asian EMs that are integrated into Chinese supply chains. But the potential fallout was always likely to be pretty small. The sharp... 5th December 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Trump less likely to back out of his own trade deal The trade ceasefire agreed by Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping bears a striking resemblance to the ill-fated deal reached back in May but, with Trump himself having personally negotiated the... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Trump less likely to back out of his own trade deal The trade ceasefire agreed by Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping bears a striking resemblance to the ill-fated deal reached back in May but, with Trump himself having personally negotiated the... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Trade ceasefire is no growth panacea, even if it lasts The ceasefire agreed by Trump and Xi will help avert a sharp slowdown in US-China trade at the start of next year. But negotiations toward a lasting deal are likely to be fraught. And broader... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Trump-Xi truce provides some relief for commodities Mounting US protectionism, particularly towards China, has been a key factor weighing on commodity prices for much of this year. As such, news that China and the US are to resume talks provides some... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) The November PMIs for Emerging Asia indicate that the region’s manufacturing sectors lost further momentum in the middle of Q4. Meanwhile, the weakness in new export orders supports our view that the... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Tariffs not benefitting other countries On the eve of the Xi-Trump showdown the latest data show that exports from China to the US of the goods affected by the first round of tariffs have fallen. But there is no sign that other countries... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly The Powell put and Trump’s gut Fed Chair Jerome Powell's language earlier this week prompted some in the markets to claim he had taken a sudden dovish turn, possibly in response to pointed criticism from President Donald Trump. We... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly BoT sounding hawkish, Trump renews auto tariff threat The hawkish minutes from the Bank of Thailand’s (BoT) November meeting reaffirm our view that the central bank will raise rates by 25bp at its December meeting. Meanwhile, the Korean government’s... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update G20…or Xi20? The most that can reasonably be hoped for from talks between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump at this weekend’s G20 meeting is an agreement which temporarily reduces US-China tensions. Meanwhile, the wider... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What to expect from markets after Trump & Xi meet There’s an air of optimism in markets about the meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi at the G20 this weekend, where trade will be top of the agenda. An agreement between the two leaders might... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
